Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$86.36-1.49%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.94 → 3.93 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IFF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net income improves to at least $169 million in Q1 2026 | Net income rose from $7 million to $169 million in one quarter. | Intact | Net income falls below $7 million in Q1 2026 | Net income: $-55M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $169 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 2026-55,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
IFF is a portfolio-shaping recovery with potential for steadier performance, rather than a clearly established durable compounder. Its one-to-three-year thesis is intact, but confidence has eased from high to medium and the company is currently loss-making on the evidence provided.
IFF carries a 1.43-times premium versus peers, with a durable premium identified as the main valuation driver. The expectations gap is moderate, and the evidence labels pricing unjustified, though it does not explain the basis for that label. Fragility is low, so the snapshot does not identify concentrated pricing pressure.
Near-term results have some support from an August earnings beat, while adjusted operating EBITDA margin rose to 20.9% in 2026-Q2 from 19.7% a year earlier, with currency-neutral adjusted operating EBITDA growth of 6%. Divestitures are advancing, including the Food Ingredients sale expected to close by mid-2027, and management’s financial-performance and capital-allocation priorities are on track. Near-term guidance risk remains: a cut would be a meaningful negative, and the snapshot notes peers have missed recently and IFF has a deep miss in its history.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis hinges on continued margin and operating progress, successful execution of portfolio divestitures, and disciplined financial management. Sector conditions are another swing factor: continued strength from LIN, ECL, and SHW would support the Materials backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken that support. An IFF guidance cut would add a company-specific negative.
For the next one to three years, the long-term thesis rests on improved execution and a sharper portfolio, but loss-making status and guidance risk keep the evidence mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins stay near 10%. |
| Broken |
| Operating margin falls below 5% in FY26 |
Operating margin: 8.24% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 10% operating margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20268.238929 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $10.65 billion in 2026 | IFF grows revenue to about $10.65 billion in 2026. | Broken | Revenue falls below $10.6 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $1.942B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $10.65 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20261,942,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 5 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Volumes remain solid as customers continue to value our strong R&D and innovation.” “We invested in R&D, commercial capabilities, and capacity expansion to better serve customers, advance our innovation pipeline, and support future profitable growth.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.81 → $3.93 · observed estimates
$11.04B → $7.83B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.81 | $11,037,722,450 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.73 | $10,529,923,306 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.65 | $10,319,494,250 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.65 | $10,319,494,250 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.65 | $10,319,494,250 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.80 | $11,045,699,320 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.65 | $10,319,494,250 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.80 | $11,045,699,320 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.65 | $10,319,494,250 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.80 | $11,045,699,320 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.65 | $10,319,494,250 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.80 | $11,045,699,320 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.80 | $11,045,699,320 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.80 | $11,045,699,320 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.04 | $8,237,830,919 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.04 | $8,237,830,919 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.99 | $7,831,646,500 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.04 | $8,237,830,919 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.96 | $7,833,154,630 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.96 | $7,833,154,630 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.04 | $8,237,830,919 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.04 | $8,237,830,919 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.04 | $8,237,830,919 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.04 | $8,237,830,919 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.04 | $8,237,830,919 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.04 | $8,237,830,919 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.98 | $8,029,993,688 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.99 | $8,021,347,000 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.99 | $8,021,347,000 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.99 | $8,021,347,000 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.99 | $8,021,347,000 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.99 | $8,021,347,000 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.99 | $8,021,347,000 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.99 | $8,021,347,000 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.99 | $8,021,347,000 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.99 | $8,021,369,053 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.99 | $8,021,369,053 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.99 | $8,021,369,053 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.99 | $8,021,369,053 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.99 | $8,021,369,053 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.99 | $8,021,369,053 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.99 | $8,021,369,053 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.94 | $7,829,267,119 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.94 | $7,829,267,119 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.94 | $7,829,267,119 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.94 | $7,829,267,119 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.94 | $7,829,267,119 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.94 | $7,829,267,119 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.94 | $7,827,079,619 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.94 | $7,827,079,619 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.94 | $7,827,079,619 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.94 | $7,826,081,632 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.94 | $7,826,081,632 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.89 | $7,828,347,309 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.89 | $7,828,347,309 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.89 | $7,828,347,309 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.89 | $7,828,347,309 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.89 | $7,828,347,309 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.89 | $7,828,347,309 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.89 | $7,828,347,309 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.89 | $7,828,347,309 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.89 | $7,828,347,309 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.89 | $7,828,347,309 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.86 | $7,828,347,309 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.86 | $7,828,347,309 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.86 | $7,828,347,309 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.93 | $7,828,243,130 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.93 | $7,828,243,130 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.93 | $7,828,243,130 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.93 | $7,828,243,130 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.93 | $7,828,243,130 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.93 | $7,826,243,130 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.93 | $7,826,243,130 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.93 | $7,826,243,130 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.93 | $7,826,243,130 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.93 | $7,826,243,130 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.93 | $7,826,243,130 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.93 | $7,826,243,130 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.93 | $7,826,243,130 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.93 | $7,826,243,130 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.93 | $7,828,343,130 | 10 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.