Illumina, Inc. (ILMN)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
$218.22-1.55%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ILMN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 29.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
ILMN — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-13
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Entry into Credit Agreement On August 13, 2026, Illumina, Inc. (“Illumina” or the “Company”) entered into a credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) among the Company, as the borrower, the lenders from time to time party thereto, Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, an issuing bank and the swingline lender, and the other issuing banks from time to time party thereto. The Credit Agreement provides for a $1,000 million senior unsecured fiv…
Why it matters: If they exceed this guidance, it shows strong demand and growth for Illumina.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance exceeds $4.64 billion.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance remains at or below $4.60 billion.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow shows good management of expenses and revenue.
Watch forCash flow from operations reported at or above $289 million in Q3.
Also watch forCash flow from operations reported below $201 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in rules could affect sales and operations in a key market.
Worry ifThe company gets good news that eases rules in China.
Less concerning ifThe company has new rules or delays in its work in China.
Why it matters: Cash flow trends show the company's financial health and efficiency.
Worry ifCash flow from operations increases above $300 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations drops below $250 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show the company's financial health and performance. This is important for investor feelings.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: An update to revenue growth guidance could signal changes in demand or market conditions.
Supportive ifManagement raises revenue growth guidance above the current range of 4%-6%.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue growth guidance below the current range of 4%-6%.
Why it matters: The court's decision may affect investor trust and stock performance.
Watch forThe court agrees to dismiss the case against management.
Also watch forThe court denies the dismissal, allowing the action to proceed.
Why it matters: This program shows how well the company uses its money. It can help build trust and raise share value.
Supportive ifThe company said it finished share buybacks worth more than $500 million.
Worry ifNo big share buybacks are expected in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Progress on the $1.5 billion share buyback shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifIllumina completes at least $500 million in share buybacks.
Worry ifNo major share buybacks reported in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: Changes in margin guidance can show shifts in cost control and profits.
Watch forOperating margin guidance is raised to above 23.6% for fiscal year 2026.
Also watch forOperating margin guidance is now below 23.4% for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows the company is getting more efficient. This helps investor confidence.
Supportive ifOperating income increases year over year by more than 10% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income growth falls below 5% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The court's decision on the dismissal could change Illumina's legal risks and how investors feel.
Watch forCourt approves the dismissal of the Icahn Partners lawsuit.
Also watch forCourt denies the dismissal, allowing the lawsuit to continue.
Why it matters: A higher operating margin means better cost control and more profit.
Supportive ifOperating margin was above 22.5% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating margin was below 22.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below 5%, it may show less demand for Illumina's products.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: News about the share buyback can show how much management believes in the company's value.
Supportive ifManagement says they finished at least $500 million in share buybacks.
Worry ifNo news on share buybacks or a big delay in the program.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$202 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $344 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,566 loss on $10,000 · 25.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.