Illumina, Inc. (ILMN)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-05
$208.00-8.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ILMN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ILMN — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-10-13
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under "
Why it matters: Management tied Q3 results above guidance to clinical demand and NovaSeq X placements. A slowdown would weaken this stated growth driver.
Supportive ifManagement reports strong NovaSeq X demand. Revenue grows year over year in the next quarter.
Worry ifManagement reports lower NovaSeq X demand. Or, next-quarter revenue is below the level from a year earlier.
Why it matters: Illumina raised its revenue range after Q3 results beat its guidance. Results above the new top end would show that growth held up.
Supportive ifFY2026 revenue, excluding tariff refunds, is above $4.66 billion.
Worry ifFY2026 revenue, excluding tariff refunds, is below $4.64 billion.
Why it matters: Illumina raised its EPS range after Q3 results. Clearing the new top end would show earnings strength beyond its current plan.
Supportive ifFY2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS is above $5.45.
Worry ifFY2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS is below $5.40.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$214 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $372 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,918 loss on $10,000 · 29.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.