Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
First Internet Bancorp (INBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$25.77-5.01%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.60 → 4.51 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for INBK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Provision for credit losses at $50M to $53M | The bank manages credit losses between $50M and $53M to control costs. | Under Pressure | Provision exceeds $55 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a bank recovery and execution story, not a steady compounder: the thesis depends on improving credit quality, growing core lending, and building fintech partnerships. The multi-year view is intact, though the latest signal shifted from mildly favorable to mixed after earnings.
The evidence describes INBK as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear cautious relative to the valuation comparison. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the available evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Near term, erratic earnings and the latest quarterly miss raise the risk of another weak report, even as recent financial performance remains strong relative to much of its industry. In the multi-year view, lower credit-loss provisions and charge-offs, a higher loan yield, and sequential fintech fee growth are constructive, but rising nonperforming loans and lower year-over-year noninterest income show that progress is uneven.
The key test is whether INBK can keep resolving problem credits while growing core commercial lending without early payoffs and runoff erasing progress. A guidance cut or rate reductions would add pressure, while continued earnings strength among financial-sector peers could support sector momentum.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact but has become more uncertain after the earnings miss. Credit trends, lending execution, and the next guidance update are the main evidence to watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It maintains a steady dividend of $0.06 per share each quarter. |
| Intact |
| Dividend cut below $0.06 per share |
Dividend per share: $0.06 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $0.06 per share each quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20260.06 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS reaches $2.35 to $2.45 | It targets earnings per share near $2.35-$2.45 in the same year. | Intact | EPS falls below $2.20 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.54 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.35 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20260.54 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches $155M to $160M | A primary condition in First Internet Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $155 million. | Broken | Revenue falls below $150 million in FY26 | Revenue: $80.031M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $155 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202680,031,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.62 → $4.51 · observed estimates
$0.21B → $0.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.62 | $210,539,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.64 | $167,966,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.64 | $167,966,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.62 | $210,539,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.64 | $167,966,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.64 | $167,966,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.62 | $210,539,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.56 | $165,033,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.62 | $210,539,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.56 | $165,033,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.53 | $161,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.53 | $161,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.53 | $161,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.53 | $161,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.53 | $161,025,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.60 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.50 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.50 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.50 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.50 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.50 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.50 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.50 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.50 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.50 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.50 | $202,019,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.40 | $202,433,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.40 | $202,433,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.40 | $202,433,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.40 | $202,433,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.40 | $202,433,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.40 | $202,433,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.40 | $202,433,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.40 | $202,433,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.40 | $202,433,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.40 | $202,433,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.40 | $202,433,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.40 | $202,433,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.51 | $194,433,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.51 | $194,433,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.51 | $194,433,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.51 | $194,433,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.51 | $194,433,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $4.51 | $194,433,333 | 3 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.