Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Inogen, Inc. (INGN)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.22+2.85%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for INGN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain gross profit near $38M per quarter | Gross profit remains stable near $38 million per quarter. | Intact | gross profit falls below $35M per quarter | Gross profit: $43.272M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: gross profit >= $35M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202643,272,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a smaller-cap healthcare business with a gradual-growth and profitability-improvement thesis, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but fragile earnings quality and elevated risk make execution important.
The valuation evidence points to INGN being cheap versus peers, with a low-confidence model and an expectations gap that suggests limited expectations are reflected. The priced-in assessment is marked justified, not broadly fragile, though that does not remove the business risks.
Near term, management is on track with its 2026 priorities: about 3% revenue growth, higher adjusted EBITDA, and international expansion. Q2 revenue grew 3.0% year over year, international revenue grew 14.8%, and adjusted EBITDA increased, though the company remains loss-making. A guidance reversal after the recent raise, or weaker employment data, could add pressure to an already elevated-risk setup.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on sustaining modest revenue growth while improving profitability and expanding internationally. A guidance cut after the recent raise would damage management credibility; continued strong results from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop. Evidence on the recent agreement and announced share buybacks is limited in this snapshot.
INGN’s multi-year view is intact, supported by steady growth and improving adjusted profitability, but net losses, fragile earnings quality, and guidance credibility remain key risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company is improving leadership with new COO and CFO hires. |
| Intact |
| no operational improvements or leadership turnover within 12 months |
COO hired 2026-07-01 vs target 2026 COO appointed July 2026; Q2 earnings beat; $25M asset sale executed Sept 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in a supplied disclosure. Management reported: “Mr. Reding will be responsible for driving revenue and operational performance, aligning cross-functional priorities, and helping ensure Inogen’s strategy is translated into efficient and measurable outcomes.” ““As we continue to diversify Inogen’s business through new product launches and geographic expansion, we are streamlining our leadership structure to enhance execution and accelerate delivery of our strategic priorities,” said Kevin Smith, Inogen’s Chief Executive Officer.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Improve operating income from negative $9.3M in 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in Inogen, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is operating income better than -$9.3M in next 4 quarters. | Under Pressure | operating income remains at or below -$9.3M in next 4 quarters | Operating income: $-5.096M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income better than -$9.3M in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 2026-5,096,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve ~6% revenue growth to ~$370M in FY26 | A primary condition in Inogen, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$370M revenue in FY26. | Improving | revenue falls below $349M in FY26 | Revenue: $95.084M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$370M revenue in FY26. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 7, 202695,084,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Execute $30M share repurchase program | It has a $30 million share buyback program to support the stock. | Intact | no meaningful repurchases executed by end 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.26 → $-0.48 · observed estimates
$0.40B → $0.37B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.26 | $396,833,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.26 | $396,833,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.26 | $396,833,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.47 | $396,833,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.26 | $396,833,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.26 | $396,833,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.26 | $396,833,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.26 | $396,833,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.47 | $396,833,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.47 | $396,833,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.26 | $396,833,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.26 | $396,833,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.26 | $396,733,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.26 | $396,733,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.47 | $396,733,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.26 | $396,733,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.26 | $396,733,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.47 | $396,733,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.16 | $373,166,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.47 | $396,733,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.47 | $396,733,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.47 | $396,733,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.47 | $396,733,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.47 | $396,733,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.47 | $396,733,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.47 | $396,733,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.47 | $373,166,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.47 | $373,166,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.47 | $373,166,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.47 | $373,166,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.47 | $373,166,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.47 | $373,166,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.47 | $373,166,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.47 | $373,166,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.47 | $373,166,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.47 | $373,166,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.47 | $372,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.48 | $372,580,050 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.48 | $372,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.48 | $372,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.