Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. (INR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.61-0.76%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · INR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -33.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 36.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 69.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
INR — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-10
CFO — Cary Baetz: The filing announces the appointment of a new external CFO, not the departure of an existing executive.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it may signal a positive shift in the energy sector.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth shows an increase above 2%.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth stays at or below 2%.
Why it matters: Sticking to production goals shows stability. It also suggests possible growth.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms production guidance of 345-375 MMcfe/d for 2026.
Worry ifProduction guidance is lowered below 345 MMcfe/d.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better financial health and more efficient operations.
Supportive ifNet loss reported below $6.3 million for Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet loss reported above $6.3 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping a strong margin shows good efficiency and cost control. It shows the company's competitive edge.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDAX margin remains above $3.60/Mcfe in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDAX margin drops below $3.50/Mcfe in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$180 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $468 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,635 loss on $10,000 · 36.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Ongoing buybacks show management believes in the company's value. They want to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks beyond the current $72.3 million.
Worry ifNo new share buybacks have been announced or done.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows growth plans in oil production are working.
Supportive ifQ3 oil production reported at or above 20 Mbbls/d.
Worry ifQ3 oil production reported below 18 Mbbls/d.
Why it matters: Finishing the share buyback shows management believes in the company's value. This can help share price.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases reach or exceed $75 million by the end of 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases stall below $50 million by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping CAPEX guidance shows a focus on growth. It also shows careful spending.
Supportive ifCAPEX reported for 2026 aligns with the $450M-$500M guidance.
Worry ifCAPEX reported for 2026 deviates from the $450M-$500M guidance.
Why it matters: Higher debt levels could indicate financial stress and impact growth plans.
Worry ifTotal net debt reported above $477 million.
Less concerning ifTotal net debt reported below $477 million.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows strong growth and good operations. It backs management's plans.
Supportive ifQ3 net production reported above 375 MMcfe/d.
Worry ifQ3 net production reported below 345 MMcfe/d.