Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. (INR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.25-2.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · INR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 40.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 71.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers
INR — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-10
CFO — Cary Baetz: The filing announces the appointment of a new external CFO, not the departure of an existing executive.
Why it matters: That range is management’s full-year target. Meeting it would confirm the recent production growth continued.
Supportive ifThe next results show full-year 2026 net production of 345–375 MMcfe/d.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 net production is below 345 MMcfe/d or above 375 MMcfe/d.
Why it matters: The October update says most of the loss was a non-cash change in open contracts. Final results will show whether the preliminary amount changed.
Watch forThe Q3 report shows a total derivative loss near $64.4M. About $63.2M of that was unrealized.
Also watch forThe final Q3 report shows a total derivative loss far above $64.4M. Or it shows realized cash losses above $1.2M.
Why it matters: This is a stated 2026 target. Results will show whether oil and liquids growth kept pace.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 oil and liquids production reaches 18–20 Mbbls/d.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 oil and liquids production is below 18 Mbbls/d.
Why it matters: Spending within the stated range would show the drilling plan stayed on budget as production grew.
Watch forFull-year 2026 development spending is $450M–$500M, with net production at least 345 MMcfe/d.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 development spending is above $500M, or below $450M with net production under 345 MMcfe/d.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$158 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $467 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,635 loss on $10,000 · 36.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: INR had $72.3M left in its $75M program at June 30. The next report can show whether the company kept buying shares.
Supportive ifThe report says INR repurchased shares in Q3. It shows less than $72.3M left in the program.
Worry ifThe report shows no Q3 repurchases and the remaining balance stays at $72.3M.