Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Insmed Inc. (INSM)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$108.76-1.13%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.78 → 0.72 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for INSM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
ARIKAYCE revenue between $450M and $470M in FY26 | A primary condition in Insmed Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 450-470 USD_MILLIONS. | Improving | ARIKAYCE revenue falls below $450M in FY26 | Revenue: $524.428M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 450-470 USD_MILLIONS. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 29, 2026524,428,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a commercial-growth and pipeline-development story, not a profitable business today. Its long-term thesis is intact, with BRINSUPRI and ARIKAYCE expanding, while TPIP trials remain a longer-term source of uncertainty.
INSM carries a durable premium versus peers, and the valuation signal is classified as justified, with low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions may be demanding relative to the evidence; confidence in that assessment is medium.
In the near term, commercial execution is constructive: BRINSUPRI revenue grew, guidance was raised, and ARIKAYCE revenue increased alongside a regulatory review milestone. However, the latest quarter missed, recent earnings surprises have been erratic, and company momentum fell sharply after the report. Over the multi-year view, TPIP trial progress matters, but outcomes are still pending.
The near-term case depends on management sustaining recently raised guidance and avoiding a reversal that could damage credibility. Continued progress in TPIP studies and growth in BRINSUPRI and ARIKAYCE would support the multi-year thesis. Broader Healthcare strength could help the sector backdrop, while weakening employment data may add pressure to cyclical names.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact but carries elevated risk: commercial growth is real, while profitability, trial outcomes, and steadier execution remain important open questions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Insmed Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1000 USD_MILLIONS. |
| Intact |
| BRINSUPRI revenue falls below $1B in FY26 |
Revenue: $524.428M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=1000 USD_MILLIONS. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 29, 2026524,428,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Development progress of INS1148 for respiratory diseases | A supporting condition in Insmed Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustained clinical development progress in 2026. | Intact | Development of INS1148 stalls or is discontinued | Qualitative: Active development confirmed Insmed's new drug launch is reshaping the business, strongly reinforcing INS1148 development progress for respiratory and inflammatory diseases. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Return to positive EPS by FY27 | A primary condition in Insmed Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= 0.14 USD_PER_SHARE. | Improving | EPS remains negative through FY27 | Diluted EPS: $-0.46 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= 0.14 USD_PER_SHARE. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 29, 2026-0.46 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.13 → $0.72 · observed estimates
$2.78B → $3.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.13 | $2,776,122,330 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.34 | $2,767,412,502 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.13 | $2,776,394,800 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.34 | $2,773,189,133 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.34 | $2,773,189,133 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.13 | $2,776,394,800 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.13 | $2,776,394,800 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.13 | $2,776,394,800 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.34 | $2,773,189,133 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.13 | $2,776,394,800 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.06 | $2,777,847,180 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.06 | $2,777,847,180 | 16 / 21 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.12 | $2,775,381,100 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.12 | $2,775,381,100 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.33 | $2,772,175,437 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.33 | $2,772,175,437 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.41 | $2,846,784,400 | 9 / 21 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.33 | $2,772,175,437 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.33 | $2,772,175,437 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.33 | $2,772,175,437 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.33 | $2,772,175,437 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.33 | $2,772,175,437 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.33 | $2,772,175,437 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.33 | $2,772,175,437 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.33 | $2,772,175,437 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.33 | $2,772,175,437 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.90 | $2,876,338,289 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.90 | $2,876,338,289 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.90 | $2,876,338,289 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.90 | $2,876,338,289 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.90 | $2,876,338,289 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.90 | $2,876,338,289 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.96 | $2,894,090,670 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.96 | $2,894,090,670 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.96 | $2,894,090,670 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.96 | $2,894,090,670 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.96 | $2,894,090,670 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.96 | $2,894,090,670 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.96 | $2,894,090,670 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.96 | $2,894,090,670 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.96 | $2,894,090,670 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.96 | $2,894,090,670 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.96 | $2,894,090,670 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.96 | $2,894,090,670 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.96 | $2,894,090,670 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.96 | $2,894,090,670 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.96 | $2,894,090,670 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.91 | $2,894,085,908 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.91 | $2,894,085,908 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.91 | $2,894,085,908 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.91 | $2,894,085,908 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.91 | $2,894,085,908 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.91 | $2,894,085,908 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.83 | $2,878,852,575 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.83 | $2,878,852,575 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.83 | $2,878,852,575 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.83 | $2,878,852,575 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.83 | $2,878,852,575 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.83 | $2,878,852,575 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.83 | $2,878,852,575 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.83 | $2,878,852,575 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.83 | $2,878,852,575 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.83 | $2,878,852,575 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.80 | $2,882,591,994 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.80 | $2,882,591,994 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.80 | $2,882,591,994 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.81 | $2,883,864,722 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.78 | $2,883,864,722 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.78 | $2,883,864,722 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.78 | $2,883,864,735 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.78 | $2,883,864,735 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.78 | $2,883,864,735 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.78 | $2,883,864,735 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.78 | $2,883,864,735 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.78 | $2,883,864,735 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.78 | $2,884,636,599 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.79 | $2,886,410,463 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.79 | $2,886,410,463 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.79 | $2,886,410,463 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.79 | $2,886,410,463 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.73 | $2,872,146,094 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.75 | $2,908,600,639 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.75 | $2,908,600,639 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.75 | $2,908,691,330 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.75 | $2,908,691,330 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.80 | $2,912,433,316 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.80 | $2,912,433,316 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.80 | $2,912,433,316 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.80 | $2,912,433,316 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.80 | $2,911,147,386 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.80 | $2,911,147,386 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.80 | $2,911,147,386 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.80 | $2,911,147,386 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.80 | $2,911,147,386 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.81 | $2,911,147,386 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.81 | $2,911,146,477 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.81 | $2,911,146,477 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.74 | $2,948,196,649 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.65 | $2,973,506,474 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.65 | $2,973,506,474 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.65 | $2,976,506,474 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.71 | $2,995,915,565 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.72 | $2,996,138,282 | 15 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.