Reading INSP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track INSP free→Reading INSP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track INSP free→NYSEHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how they impact estimates. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $42.70. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $43 INSP trades at 17× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $60 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $39–$95. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 29% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.25 → $-0.25 (-198.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 12 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -12.8% above current price.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$199.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$592.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,219.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below its median, it may signal broader issues in the healthcare sector.
Confirms:Healthcare sector revenue growth drops below 1% year over year.
Disproves:Healthcare sector revenue growth remains above 1% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for INSP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$39.00 – $95.00 (median $67.00) · 19 analysts · as of 2026-05-22
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
INSP Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Address the coding and reimbursement challenges for Inspire V to stabilize revenue.
Revise and achieve the revenue outlook for 2026 to be between $825 million and $875 million.
Focus on maintaining an adjusted operating margin between 2% and 4% for 2026.
Target an annual adjusted diluted EPS within the range of $0.07 to $0.62 for 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this goal is key to rebuilding trust after recent money issues.
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported at or above $206.25 million, which supports the full year guidance.
Disproves:Q2 revenue was below $206.25 million, showing more problems ahead.
Why it matters: Solving these issues is important for making more money and getting users for Inspire V.
Confirms:A formal announcement will come about new payment codes for Inspire V cases.
Disproves:Ongoing delays or no news on coding and payment for Inspire V.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if revenue growth continues or slows down. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year, indicating strong performance.
Confirms the other:Q2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year, suggesting weakening demand.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS range shows good financial health and smooth operations.
Confirms:Adjusted diluted EPS reported within the range of $0.07 to $0.62.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS was below $0.07. This suggests possible money problems.
The excerpt is incomplete and does not provide sufficient information to determine the nature of the event.