Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc (IONS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$58.09-0.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IONS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 41.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 67.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IONS — CEO transition
Dated 2026-06-08
Director — Ludwig N. Hantson: Dr. Ludwig N. Hantson was appointed as a member of the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: Achieving this target would confirm strong demand and growth for this product.
Supportive ifDAWNZERA sales reach $110 million or more by the end of 2026. This shows strong market interest.
Worry ifDAWNZERA sales fall below $90 million by the end of 2026. This shows weaker demand.
Why it matters: News will show how the partnership is growing. It may affect future sales.
Watch forLook for good news on bepirovirsen trials or sales numbers from GSK.
Also watch forNo updates or negative trial results from GSK.
Why it matters: The new CEO's strategy may shift company priorities and affect revenue growth.
Watch forThe new CEO will share positive news about the growth plan soon.
Also watch forAnalysts or investors may give negative feedback about the new CEO's plan.
Why it matters: The data will show how pelacarsen affects heart disease risk. This impacts Ionis's future plans.
Watch forFull Lp(a)HORIZON data will be shared at a medical meeting. It shows good results for heart disease risk.
Also watch forThe presentation shows no big change in heart disease risk. This is despite lower Lp(a) levels.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$148 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $325 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,015 loss on $10,000 · 40.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Sales growth will indicate the success of the product launch and its market acceptance.
Supportive ifTRYNGOLZA sales exceed $50 million in Q3 2026, showing strong market demand.
Worry ifTRYNGOLZA sales drop below $30 million in Q3 2026. This shows weak market acceptance.
Why it matters: Good results could improve Ionis' reputation in heart treatments and lift stock mood.
Watch forPositive results from the pelacarsen HORIZON trial will be shared in late 2026.
Also watch forTrial results show no clear benefits or harmful effects.
Why it matters: Meeting this growth target shows Ionis is on track with its financial goals. It reflects strong commercial and R&D performance.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue growth of 20% or more compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue growth below 15% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Meeting this sales target shows the product is accepted in the market.
Supportive ifTRYNGOLZA product sales reported at $100 million or more by year-end 2026.
Worry ifSales fall below $100 million for the full year 2026.