Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc (IONS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$40.15-0.67%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IONS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DAWNZERA product sales reach $110-120 million | DAWNZERA sales aim for $110-120 million in 2026. | Intact | DAWNZERA sales fall below $100 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “This increase was primarily driven by DAWNZERA product sales.” “This increase was primarily driven by TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA product sales.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented biotech business, not yet a profitable compounder. The long-term thesis remains intact, with recent progress in revenue and launches, but the evidence is mixed on TRYNGOLZA and overall risk is elevated.
The valuation is tagged as justified, and the model indicates IONS is cheap versus peers, with medium confidence. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be demanding despite the peer discount; the evidence does not give enough detail to state exactly what growth the market assumes.
Near term, revenue progress is encouraging: second-quarter revenue rose from the first quarter, and management raised its 2026 revenue guidance. DAWNZERA sales are advancing toward guidance, while TRYNGOLZA progress is mixed; the company remains loss-making, and a guidance cut or broader economic weakness could weigh on execution.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on delivering the raised revenue outlook and growing DAWNZERA and TRYNGOLZA sales. Guidance cuts would weaken the case, while continued strength from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop; the jobs trend is another risk signal.
For the 1-3 year view, IONS pairs credible revenue momentum with ongoing losses and meaningful execution risk. The thesis is intact, but its strength depends on turning launch progress into sustained growth. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Improvement in EPS trajectory toward break-even | A supporting condition in Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows toward -$0.6 per share in 2027. | Broken | EPS loss worsens beyond -$1.0 per share in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total revenue grows by about 20% year over year | Ionis is growing revenue about 20% a year. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “This increase was primarily driven by DAWNZERA product sales.” “This increase was primarily driven by TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA product sales.” Revenue was $246.091 million in 2026-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
TRYNGOLZA peak net sales exceed $2 billion | TRYNGOLZA has FDA approval and targets over $2 billion in peak sales. | Intact | TRYNGOLZA peak sales potential drops below $1.5 billion | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.84 → $-2.08 · observed estimates
$1.39B → $1.34B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.84 | $1,388,206,009 | 9 / 17 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.84 | $1,388,206,009 | 9 / 17 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.07 | $1,393,462,710 | 7 / 21 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.07 | $1,392,719,860 | 7 / 21 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.78 | $1,387,423,649 | 9 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.78 | $1,387,423,649 | 9 / 17 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.07 | $1,392,719,860 | 7 / 21 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.52 | $1,403,804,250 | 5 / 21 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.79 | $1,400,608,511 | 7 / 17 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.44 | $1,406,328,060 | 7 / 21 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.44 | $1,406,328,060 | 7 / 21 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.44 | $1,406,328,060 | 7 / 21 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.16 | $1,401,507,820 | 9 / 22 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.16 | $1,401,507,820 | 9 / 22 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.89 | $1,378,149,446 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.89 | $1,378,149,446 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.16 | $1,401,507,880 | 9 / 22 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.89 | $1,378,149,446 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.89 | $1,378,149,446 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.89 | $1,378,149,446 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.89 | $1,378,149,446 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.89 | $1,378,149,446 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.89 | $1,378,149,446 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.89 | $1,378,149,446 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.89 | $1,378,149,446 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.89 | $1,378,149,446 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.93 | $1,379,995,467 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.93 | $1,379,995,467 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.93 | $1,379,995,467 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.93 | $1,379,995,467 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.93 | $1,379,995,467 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.93 | $1,379,995,467 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.93 | $1,379,990,921 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.93 | $1,379,990,921 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.93 | $1,379,990,921 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.93 | $1,379,828,508 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.93 | $1,379,828,508 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.93 | $1,379,828,508 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.93 | $1,379,834,912 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.93 | $1,379,829,653 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.93 | $1,379,829,653 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.93 | $1,379,829,653 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.93 | $1,379,301,915 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.93 | $1,380,600,419 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.93 | $1,380,260,495 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.93 | $1,345,138,268 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.97 | $1,325,555,337 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.97 | $1,325,555,337 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.97 | $1,325,555,337 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.97 | $1,325,555,337 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.97 | $1,325,555,337 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.97 | $1,325,555,337 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.97 | $1,325,555,337 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.99 | $1,321,031,528 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.99 | $1,321,031,528 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.00 | $1,321,031,528 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.00 | $1,321,031,528 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.00 | $1,321,031,528 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.00 | $1,321,031,528 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.00 | $1,321,031,528 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.00 | $1,321,031,528 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.00 | $1,313,262,909 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.04 | $1,307,967,509 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.04 | $1,307,967,509 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.04 | $1,307,967,509 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.04 | $1,307,967,509 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.04 | $1,307,967,509 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.04 | $1,307,967,509 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.04 | $1,307,968,609 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.04 | $1,307,968,609 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.04 | $1,307,968,609 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.04 | $1,307,968,609 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.04 | $1,307,968,609 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.04 | $1,307,968,609 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.04 | $1,307,968,609 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.04 | $1,307,968,609 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.04 | $1,343,338,217 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.05 | $1,341,377,768 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.05 | $1,341,377,768 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.05 | $1,341,377,768 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.10 | $1,343,373,582 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.10 | $1,343,373,582 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.10 | $1,343,373,582 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.07 | $1,343,464,962 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.07 | $1,343,464,962 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.07 | $1,343,464,962 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.07 | $1,343,464,962 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.07 | $1,343,466,179 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.07 | $1,343,881,992 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.07 | $1,343,880,775 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.08 | $1,341,282,446 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.08 | $1,341,282,446 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.08 | $1,341,282,446 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.08 | $1,341,282,446 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.08 | $1,341,282,446 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.08 | $1,341,281,442 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.08 | $1,341,281,442 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.08 | $1,341,281,442 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.08 | $1,341,281,442 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.08 | $1,341,281,442 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.08 | $1,341,281,442 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.08 | $1,341,281,442 | 11 / 19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.08 | $1,341,282,446 | 11 / 19 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.