Samsara Inc (IOT)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$40.20+3.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IOT
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $40 the market pays 14× p/s — above the 4.7× p/s peer median but in line with its own 12× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $29 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $38–$58. Note: our $29 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($38–$58). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $49.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $21.27 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $21.64 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $5.21 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$38.00 – $58.00 (median $49.50) · 16 analysts · as of 2026-09-04
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $11.99 |
| 30.0 |
| 0.40 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $24.00 | 27.8 | 0.86 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $13.83 | 4.7 | 2.94 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $7.65 | 16.3 | 0.47 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $20.61 | 40.3 | 0.51 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $31.74 | 27.8 | 1.14 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $24.51 | 4.7 | 5.22 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $14.59 | 16.3 | 0.90 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $41.97 | 27.8 | 1.51 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $32.42 | 4.7 | 6.90 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $19.30 | 16.3 | 1.19 | Analyst | medium |