Samsara Inc (IOT)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$42.81+4.14%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IOT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 74.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 25.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 48.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
IOT — earnings in line
Dated 2026-09-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On September 3, 2026, Samsara Inc. (“Samsara” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and six months ended August 1, 2026 . A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this
Why it matters: Q3 results test the company's growth pace. Revenue below its own range would weaken the growth story.
Worry ifOn December 3, Q3 revenue is below $514 million, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is at least $514 million, within or above the $514 million to $516 million range.
Why it matters: ARR grew 30% in the latest quarter. Keeping that pace would support the company's growth story.
Supportive ifThe next report shows ARR growth of at least 30% year over year.
Worry ifThe next report shows ARR growth below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Samsara has made a profit for four quarters in a row. Another profitable quarter would extend that streak.
Supportive ifThe next report shows positive GAAP net income and positive diluted GAAP earnings per share.
Worry ifThe next report shows a GAAP net loss or negative diluted GAAP earnings per share.
Why it matters: Free cash flow fell from $73.2 million to $64.7 million between the last two quarters. Another drop would extend that slide.
Worry ifThe next report shows free cash flow below $64.7 million.
Less concerning ifThe next report shows free cash flow at or above $64.7 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$227 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $601 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,637 loss on $10,000 · 46.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.