Samsara Inc (IOT)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$40.20+3.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IOT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 38.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 27.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 69 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IOT — earnings in line
Dated 2026-09-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On September 3, 2026, Samsara Inc. (“Samsara” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and six months ended August 1, 2026 . A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this
Why it matters: A drop could mean higher costs or problems. This would hurt the company's profits.
Worry ifGross profit margin reported below 75%.
Less concerning ifGross profit margin remains at or above 75%.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is making money. Strong results can help investors feel good.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings show net income over $44.5M. This confirms the company is making progress.
Worry ifQ3 earnings report shows net income under $44.5M. This shows the company has profit problems.
Why it matters: This would show strong operational cash flow and progress towards management's goal. It reflects the company's financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations was over $85 million.
Worry ifCash from operations was under $81 million.
Why it matters: Earnings results give clues about profit and how well the company is doing.
Watch forThe earnings report shows a profit or a big rise in revenue.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a loss or significant decline in revenue.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$269 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $634 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,637 loss on $10,000 · 46.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Insights may explain how Samsara plans to keep growing.
Watch forThey made positive announcements about growth plans on Investor Day.
Also watch forNo clear growth plans or negative comments were made on Investor Day.
Why it matters: More cash from operations means Samsara is doing better with its cash flow. This helps management reach its goal of more operational cash.
Supportive ifQ2 cash from operations rises above $81.4M, continuing the upward trend.
Worry ifQ2 cash from operations falls below $81.4M, indicating cash flow issues.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could impact Samsara's performance. It may signal broader market challenges.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is below its median. This shows possible challenges ahead.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is above its median. This suggests the sector is still strong.
Why it matters: A higher gross profit margin shows better cost control and pricing power. This matches management's focus on making more money.
Supportive ifGross profit margin increases beyond the current level of 36.5% in Q2.
Worry ifGross profit margin declines or stays flat, suggesting cost pressures.
Why it matters: Insights may show growth chances and plans for Samsara.
Supportive ifPositive news about operational AI will be shared on June 24, 2026.
Worry ifNo big updates or bad news on operational AI during the Investor Day.
Why it matters: Falling net new ARR may show problems with getting and keeping customers.
Worry ifNet new ARR reported below $100 million.
Less concerning ifNet new ARR reported at or above $100 million.
Why it matters: Keeping GAAP profits is important for trust from investors and how the market sees us.
Supportive ifGAAP net income per share reported as positive in Q3.
Worry ifGAAP net income per share reported as negative in Q3.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in revenue growth, which is key for investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 revenue grew less than 24% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 24% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A drop in ARR growth could indicate weakening demand for Samsara's services.
Worry ifARR grew less than 30% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifARR growth remains at or above 30% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A drop in free cash flow margin may show money problems and less flexibility.
Worry ifFree cash flow margin reported below 13%.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow margin remains at or above 13%.