Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Samsara Inc (IOT)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$41.09-4.02%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.95 → 0.95 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IOT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Expand gross profit from $283.7M to $361.1M | A supporting condition in Samsara Inc's published investment case. The stated target is gross profit >= $361.1M. | Intact | Gross profit falls below $300M in 2027-Q1 | Gross profit: $392.581M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: gross profit >= $361.1M. The stored target says 2027-Q1; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 8, 2026392,581,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented software business with a developing profitability profile, rather than an established, consistently profitable compounder. The thesis is intact, though confidence is medium and risk is elevated.
IOT is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence points to expectations tied to a possible re-rating, meaning investors may expect the market’s view of the business to improve. The valuation model has low confidence, and the priced-in assessment labels the valuation unjustified, so the expectations gap is a concern even though fragility is rated low.
Near-term results show strong momentum: quarterly revenue rose, ARR grew 30% year over year, and non-GAAP operating margin improved. Management is making progress on growth and margins, and the company has reported four consecutive profitable quarters under GAAP accounting, though quarterly GAAP earnings declined; the broader earnings-quality assessment still describes IOT as loss-making. Recent earnings were in line, but a recent guidance miss and peer misses remain risks.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining revenue and ARR growth while maintaining GAAP profitability and expanding margins. A guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, while easier interest rates or steadier results from large technology peers could improve the sector backdrop. The available evidence does not establish how likely these scenarios are.
For a 1-to-3-year view, the operating evidence supports an intact growth thesis, but elevated risk and an expensive valuation make execution and guidance important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Samsara delivered another quarter of durable and efficient growth, crossing $2.1 billion in ARR with 30% year-over-year growth for the third consecutive quarter,” said Sanjit Biswas, CEO and co-founder of Samsara.” ““Samsara delivered a strong Q1, approaching $2B in ARR with 30% growth and GAAP EPS profitability for the third consecutive quarter,” said Sanjit Biswas, CEO and Co-founder, Samsara.”
Net income grows from negative to positive $44.5M | Net income rose from -$22M to $44M in one year. | Broken | Net income remains negative or below $20M in 2027-Q1 | Net income: $16.242M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $44.5M. The stored target says 2027-Q1; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 8, 202616,242,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve and sustain ~20% non-GAAP operating margin | Profit margins are improving, targeting 20% operating margin. | Improving | Operating margin falls below 15% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 23% YoY | A primary condition in Samsara Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=23% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY27 | Revenue growth: 29.88% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=23% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 8, 202629.8756 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.91 → $0.95 · observed estimates
$2.41B → $2.45B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.91 | $2,405,191,417 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.91 | $2,405,191,417 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.91 | $2,405,191,417 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 10 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.91 | $2,405,569,080 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.91 | $2,405,693,025 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.91 | $2,405,693,025 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.91 | $2,405,693,025 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.91 | $2,405,693,025 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.91 | $2,405,692,899 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.90 | $2,405,692,899 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.90 | $2,405,691,990 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.90 | $2,405,691,990 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.90 | $2,405,691,990 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.91 | $2,405,691,990 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.91 | $2,405,691,990 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.91 | $2,405,691,990 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.91 | $2,405,691,990 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.91 | $2,405,691,990 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.91 | $2,405,691,990 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.94 | $2,429,302,047 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.95 | $2,445,015,982 | 12 / 17 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.95 | $2,445,015,982 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.95 | $2,445,015,982 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.95 | $2,445,015,982 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.95 | $2,445,015,982 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.95 | $2,445,015,982 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.95 | $2,445,015,982 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.95 | $2,445,015,982 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.95 | $2,445,015,982 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.95 | $2,445,015,982 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.95 | $2,445,820,409 | 11 / 17 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.95 | $2,445,820,409 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.95 | $2,448,559,539 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.95 | $2,448,559,539 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.95 | $2,448,559,539 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.95 | $2,448,559,539 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.95 | $2,448,559,539 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.95 | $2,448,559,539 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.95 | $2,448,559,539 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.95 | $2,448,559,539 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.95 | $2,448,558,765 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.95 | $2,448,558,765 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.95 | $2,448,558,765 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.95 | $2,448,558,765 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.95 | $2,448,558,765 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.95 | $2,448,558,765 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.95 | $2,448,558,765 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.95 | $2,448,558,765 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.95 | $2,448,558,765 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.95 | $2,448,558,765 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.95 | $2,448,558,765 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.95 | $2,448,993,775 | 12 / 19 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.