Reading IRDM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IRDM free→
IRDM
Iridium CommunicationsNASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecom ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$47.32-5.19%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and the company has a capital-friendly approach. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 294% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Telecom Services
- Market cap
- $4.77B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2007-11-30
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-23
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $47.32. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$12.00consensus
Range $11.51 – $23.56
vs price: +294% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$21.56consensus
Range $20.08 – $33.86
vs price: +119% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $47, IRDM's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 46× p/e (3.9× the 12× p/e peer median, and 1.0× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~294% near-term growth vs our ~4% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $12 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $26–$60. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
46.3x
peer 11.7x · own history 46.4x
Premium
3.9x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
294%
our forecast 4%
Our fair value
$12.00
range $11.44 – $22.15
Analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 294% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
75th pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 3.89x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated robust grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=525).
76th pctl · Communication Services
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish3 analysts, 60% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.31 → $0.30 (-2.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 21.0% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$281.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$523.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,075.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · valuation_scoresmall change
Valuation rose by 12.2 points (from 41.5 to 53.7).
As of June 12, 2026, the valuation dimension rose. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, while risk is elevated. The management dimension is neutral, and earnings quality is robust. The macro backdrop is current, reflecting recent economic conditions.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 7d
Watch for Q2 service revenue growth below 2%
Why it matters: Service revenue growth is key for Iridium's long-term health. A slowdown signals challenges.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 service revenue growth reported below 2% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 service revenue growth reported above 2% year over year.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for IRDM yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for IRDM and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like TMUS, VZ, and T keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting IRDM and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If IRDM raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-23), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If IRDM cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-23), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like TMUS, VZ, and T start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping IRDM and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-141mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 13, 2026, Iridium Communications Inc. (the “Company”), through its wholly owned subsidiary Iridium Monitor Holdings LLC (“Iridium Monitor Holdings”), entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with NAV CANADA, The Irish Air Navigation Service, ENAV S.P.A., Naviair Surveillance A/S, NATS (Services) Limited, and certain of their affiliated entities (collectively, the “Sellers”), pursuant to which Iridium Monitor Hol…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.