Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Iron Mountain (IRM)
NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$105.50-11.09%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.78 → 2.78 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IRM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
AFFO per share increases to about $5.83 in 2026 | Dividends increased from $0.715 to $0.864 per share in recent quarters. | Intact | AFFO per share falls below $5.04 in FY25 or below $5.79 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
IRM is a growth-oriented real estate business with robust earnings quality and strong recent financial performance. The long-term thesis is intact, and the latest signal shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though confidence in the evidence is medium.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 2.19 peer premium, and the expectations gap is negative at 0.23, suggesting limited room between current expectations and the model’s view. The priced-in assessment is described as justified, with low fragility, but confidence in the valuation model is low.
Near-term results have been strong: revenue and AFFO per share have grown, and management has raised full-year guidance repeatedly. Management is also on track with its stated dividend priority, while a guidance cut on the next call is a key near-term risk; the miss-risk assessment is quiet, with a 25% miss probability.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on continued delivery against revenue and AFFO per share guidance, alongside sustained dividend payments. Fed rate cuts could support the real estate sector, while weaker guidance or cracks in sector bellwethers could remove that support.
The multi-year view remains intact on strong execution, but the expensive peer valuation makes continued delivery and sector conditions central to the case. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Dividends increased from $0.715 to $0.864 per share in recent quarters. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.71 |
Dividend per share: $0.86 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.86 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 20260.864 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full-year revenue reaches about $7.85 billion in 2026 | It raised full-year revenue guidance to about $7.85 billion for 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $6.79 billion in FY25 or below $7.85 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $2.029B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $7.85 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20262,029,062,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Based on our strong Q2 outperformance and positive outlook, we are increasing our full year guidance.”” “With the trajectory we are on, together with our first quarter outperformance, we are pleased to raise our full-year financial guidance.”” Revenue was $2.029 billion in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 3, 2026 |
Price-to-earnings ratio stays justified below 40x | A supporting condition in Iron Mountain's published investment case. The stated target is <= 40x PE. | Intact | PE rises above 45x or falls below 20x with no growth improvement | P/E (TTM): 29.89x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202629.8892 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.60 → $2.78 · observed estimates
$8.61B → $8.76B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.60 | $8,613,337,681 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.68 | $8,613,327,160 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.68 | $8,613,327,160 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.60 | $8,613,337,681 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.60 | $8,613,337,681 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.68 | $8,613,327,160 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.60 | $8,613,337,681 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.60 | $8,613,337,681 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.60 | $8,613,337,681 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.68 | $8,613,327,160 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.68 | $8,613,327,160 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.68 | $8,613,327,160 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.68 | $8,613,327,160 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.68 | $8,613,327,160 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.63 | $8,677,288,480 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.63 | $8,677,288,480 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.73 | $8,689,865,960 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.63 | $8,677,288,480 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.63 | $8,677,288,480 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.63 | $8,677,288,480 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.63 | $8,677,288,480 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.63 | $8,677,288,480 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.63 | $8,677,288,480 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.63 | $8,677,288,480 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.63 | $8,677,288,480 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.63 | $8,677,288,480 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.65 | $8,701,534,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.65 | $8,701,534,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.65 | $8,701,534,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.73 | $8,701,534,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.73 | $8,701,534,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.73 | $8,701,534,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.73 | $8,701,534,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.73 | $8,701,534,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.73 | $8,701,534,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.73 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.73 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.73 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.73 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.73 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.73 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.73 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.78 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.78 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.78 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.78 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.78 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.78 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.78 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.78 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.78 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.78 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.78 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.78 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.78 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.78 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.78 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.78 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.78 | $8,711,034,646 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.78 | $8,738,388,595 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.78 | $8,738,388,595 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.78 | $8,738,388,595 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.78 | $8,738,388,595 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.78 | $8,738,388,595 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.78 | $8,738,388,595 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.78 | $8,738,388,595 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.78 | $8,738,388,595 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.78 | $8,738,388,595 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.78 | $8,738,388,595 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.78 | $8,738,388,595 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.78 | $8,738,388,595 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.78 | $8,738,388,595 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.78 | $8,738,388,595 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.78 | $8,738,388,595 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.78 | $8,751,925,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.78 | $8,751,925,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.78 | $8,751,925,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.78 | $8,751,925,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.78 | $8,751,925,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.78 | $8,751,925,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.78 | $8,751,925,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.78 | $8,751,925,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.78 | $8,751,925,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.78 | $8,751,925,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.78 | $8,751,925,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.78 | $8,756,225,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.78 | $8,756,225,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.78 | $8,756,225,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.78 | $8,756,225,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.78 | $8,756,225,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.78 | $8,756,225,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.78 | $8,756,225,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.78 | $8,756,225,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.78 | $8,756,225,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.78 | $8,756,225,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.78 | $8,756,225,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.78 | $8,756,225,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.78 | $8,756,225,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.78 | $8,756,225,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.78 | $8,756,225,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.78 | $8,756,225,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.78 | $8,756,225,776 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.78 | $8,756,225,776 | 5 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.