Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Disc Medicine, Inc. (IRON)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$78.47-5.78%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IRON yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cash and capital near $730 million by end 2026 | It plans $730 million in cash by end 2026. | Intact | cash falls significantly below $700 million by end 2026 | Cash and cash equivalents: $98.676M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$730 million cash. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Date unavailable98,676,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-stage healthcare company, not an established earnings compounder. The multi-year view is mixed: several programs have reached concrete milestones, while losses and elevated risk keep confidence low.
The evidence does not provide a valuation level or a clear account of market expectations, so whether IRON is cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. The recent thesis reaction has been muted, and no pricing fragility signals were triggered.
Near term, the October earnings beat is positive, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort and the company is loss-making. APOLLO showed significant results on its co-primary endpoints, while management plans to resubmit the NDA by year-end 2026; regulatory completion is still pending. Cash was lower at the June quarter-end than at March, though management says the balance funds operations into 2029.
The multi-year thesis hinges on completing the planned bitopertin resubmission and advancing DISC-0974 and DISC-3405. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add near-term pressure, while continued strength among healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop. The supplied evidence offers limited detail on the litigation and debt issuance announced on October 22.
For the next 1 to 3 years, IRON’s clinical progress and stated cash runway are constructive, but losses, elevated risk, and pending regulatory work leave the thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Disc Medicine, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue >= $32 million in 2027. |
| Intact |
| revenue fails to reach $20 million in 2027 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete workforce restructuring aligned with strategic priorities | A primary condition in Disc Medicine, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Restructuring plan implemented and workforce aligned. | Improving | restructuring plan stalls or reverses by end 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-7.59 → $-6.63 · observed estimates
$0.03B → $0.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-7.59 | $32,236,480 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-7.59 | $32,236,480 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-7.59 | $32,236,480 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-7.37 | $32,229,858 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-7.59 | $32,236,480 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-7.37 | $32,229,858 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-7.59 | $32,236,480 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-7.46 | $32,236,480 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-7.37 | $32,229,858 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-7.46 | $32,236,480 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-7.30 | $29,383,790 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-7.30 | $29,383,790 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-7.23 | $33,685,140 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-7.23 | $33,685,140 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-7.04 | $33,686,892 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-7.04 | $33,686,892 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-7.27 | $33,685,140 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-7.04 | $33,686,892 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-7.27 | $33,685,140 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-7.04 | $33,686,892 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-7.04 | $33,686,892 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-7.04 | $33,686,892 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-7.04 | $33,686,892 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-7.04 | $33,686,892 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-7.04 | $33,686,892 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-7.04 | $33,686,892 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-7.06 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-7.06 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-7.06 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-7.06 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-7.06 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-7.06 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-7.06 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-7.06 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-7.06 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-7.06 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-7.06 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-7.06 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-7.06 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-7.06 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-7.06 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-7.13 | $33,853,372 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-7.13 | $33,853,372 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-7.13 | $33,853,372 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-7.13 | $33,853,372 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-7.13 | $33,853,372 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-7.13 | $33,853,372 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-7.13 | $33,853,372 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-7.13 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-7.13 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-7.13 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-7.13 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-7.13 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-7.13 | $33,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-7.00 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-7.00 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-7.00 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-6.85 | $34,853,339 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-6.72 | $32,313,186 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-6.72 | $32,313,186 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-6.70 | $32,538,186 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-6.70 | $32,538,186 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-6.70 | $32,538,186 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-6.70 | $32,538,186 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-6.70 | $32,538,186 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-6.63 | $32,646,518 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-6.63 | $32,646,518 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-6.63 | $32,646,518 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-6.63 | $32,646,518 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-6.63 | $32,646,518 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-6.63 | $32,646,518 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-6.63 | $32,646,518 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-6.63 | $32,646,518 | 9 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.