Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IRWD)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.26-0.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · IRWD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -59.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 19.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 79.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
IRWD — debt issuance
Dated 2026-06-15
Other Events. On June 15, 2026, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) repaid in full the $200.0 million aggregate principal amount of its 1.50% convertible senior notes due 2026 (the “2026 Convertible Notes”) at their scheduled maturity. The Company funded the repayment of the outstanding aggregate principal amount of the 2026 Convertible Notes using proceeds from available cash on hand. No conversions were exercised by holders of the 2026 Convertible Notes, and the capped call trans…
Why it matters: Changes in margins can affect profits and cash flow. This impacts overall financial health.
Worry ifLINZESS commercial margin drops below 70% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifLINZESS commercial margin remains above 75% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal shows strong finances and good operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA exceeds $300 million by the end of 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $250 million by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: A slowdown in LINZESS sales growth could signal weakening demand or pricing issues. This would impact overall revenue guidance.
Worry ifLINZESS U.S. net sales growth below 10% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifLINZESS U.S. net sales growth remains above 10% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Starting this trial is important for apraglutide's growth. It can help future revenue.
Supportive ifIronwood announces site initiation for the STARS-2 Phase 3 trial by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifSite initiation for the STARS-2 trial is delayed beyond Q2 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$262 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $774 loss on $10,000 · 7.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,360 loss on $10,000 · 43.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The CFO change may alter the financial plan. This could impact investor confidence.
Watch forThe new CFO has a clear financial strategy. This reassures investors.
Also watch forThe new CFO fails to provide a clear strategy, causing investor concerns.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is key for financial stability. A decline could raise concerns.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported above $74.5 million for the quarter.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations reported below $74.5 million for the quarter.
Why it matters: A good FDA decision will help LINZESS reach more people. This could increase its sales.
Supportive ifFDA approves the sNDA for LINZESS to treat functional constipation in young kids.
Worry ifFDA rejects the sNDA for LINZESS for treating functional constipation in young children.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA results will show progress. The goal is over $300 million.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is over $75 million in Q2. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $50 million in Q2. This shows challenges in making money.
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into Ironwood's financial health and growth prospects.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth speeding up. It is now above 10% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report reveals revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Starting the STARS-2 trial is important for apraglutide's use in short bowel syndrome.
Supportive ifClinical sites for the STARS-2 Phase 3 trial initiated as planned in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo clinical sites initiated for the STARS-2 trial by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps keep finances stable and pay back convertible notes.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $20 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $20 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Updates will show if the company keeps strong cash flow. This supports financial stability.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is above $70 million in Q2. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifCash flow from operations drops below $50 million in Q2. This raises concerns about stability.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect the company's path and investor trust. Stability is important.
Watch forA permanent CFO has been appointed. This brings back stability in leadership.
Also watch forThe CFO is still in an interim role. This raises worries about management stability.
Why it matters: Progress in recruiting patients for the STARS-2 trial is crucial for advancing apraglutide. This could impact future revenue from new products.
Supportive ifRecruitment of patients for the STARS-2 trial reaches 50% completion.
Worry ifPatient recruitment for the STARS-2 trial stalls or falls below 25% completion.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted EBITDA could mean higher costs or less profit. This might hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q3 lands below $75 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q3 is over $75 million.
Why it matters: The FDA's decision on LINZESS for kids could grow the market and boost sales.
Supportive ifFDA approves LINZESS for kids.
Worry ifFDA denies LINZESS for kids.