Isabella Bank Corp (ISBA)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$40.63-3.01%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ISBA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ISBA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 furnished herewith, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor will any of such information be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing made by the registrant under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific referen…
Why it matters: Commercial and home loans grew, but total loans slipped by $556,000 from year-end. Continued growth would support the bank's loan-growth plan.
Supportive ifTotal loans rise above the September 30, 2026 balance of $1.5 billion in the next report.
Worry ifTotal loans fall below the September 30, 2026 balance. Broker advances or consumer loans also fall.
Why it matters: The deal adds a West Michigan customer base. A clean close lets the bank move from deal approval to integration.
Supportive ifThe bank reports that the deal closed on November 2, with no new closing delay or unmet condition.
Worry ifThe bank reports a delayed or failed close, or says a key closing condition remains unmet.
Why it matters: Nonaccrual loans rose from $4.6 million at year-end to $7.5 million in Q3. Another increase may point to more loan stress.
Worry ifNonaccrual loans exceed $7.5 million in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifNonaccrual loans fall below $7.5 million and past-due loans stay near or below 0.10% of total loans.
Why it matters: Merger costs were $672,000 in Q3. Customer losses or added costs could weaken the gains from the deal.
Watch forLater reports show merger costs falling below $672,000 per quarter and no stated loss of Grand River customers.
Also watch forMerger costs stay at or above $672,000 per quarter. The bank reports notable customer losses or service problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$112 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $421 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,611 loss on $10,000 · 36.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Margin growth helped lift earnings. A drop below 3.5% would break the recent rise from 3.15% in Q3 2025.
Supportive ifThe next quarterly net interest margin is above 3.5%, compared with 3.71% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe next quarterly net interest margin falls below 3.5%.
Why it matters: More deposits can strengthen funding. In Q3, money market and savings gains outweighed drops in several other deposit types.
Supportive ifDeposits rise above $1.9 billion in the next report, with total growth still positive.
Worry ifDeposits fall below $1.9 billion in the next report.