Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$427.30-1.28%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $427.30. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $427 the market pays 46× p/e — above the 37× p/e peer median but in line with its own 52× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $397 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $430–$651. Note: our $397 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($430–$651). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $483 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$430.00 – $651.00 (median $569.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 341% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 15.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $5.49/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $569.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $347.05 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $352.71 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $100.84 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $188.73 | 24.0 | 7.88 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $337.45 | 36.5 | 9.24 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $81.69 | 2.8 | 29.41 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $315.67 | 34.2 | 9.24 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $69.17 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $468.03 | 50.7 | 9.24 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $358.03 | 36.5 | 9.80 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $287.03 | 24.0 | 11.98 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $397.28 | 36.5 | 10.88 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $94.44 | 2.8 | 34.00 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $371.64 | 34.2 | 10.88 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $551.02 | 50.7 | 10.88 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $379.60 | 24.0 | 15.84 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $359.05 | 36.5 | 9.83 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $85.35 | 2.8 | 30.73 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $335.88 | 34.2 | 9.83 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $497.99 | 50.7 | 9.83 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.