Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$468.52-2.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
12.08 → 12.48 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 17 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ISRG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Grow da Vinci procedures about 16% YoY | Intuitive Surgical grows da Vinci procedures about 16% yearly. | Intact | procedure growth falls below 10% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a durable-growth healthcare business, with a long-term thesis built around increasing da Vinci procedure volume. The thesis is intact: recent results are strong, management is stable, and company momentum has improved, while valuation remains expensive versus peers.
ISRG trades at a 1.43-times premium to peers, reflecting a durable premium for its business. The valuation model shows expectations slightly above its baseline, with a 0.07 expectations gap; the snapshot labels this pricing as justified and fragility as low.
Near term, procedure growth and revenue have shown strong execution: management reported 14% da Vinci procedure growth in Q3 2026 and guided to about 14% to 15% for the year. The latest earnings event was positive, but expense and gross-margin commitments are not confirmed by actual results in the evidence, and a guidance cut is a meaningful risk.
Over the next year, the thesis hinges on procedure growth continuing and management delivering on its expense and margin priorities. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs could weigh on the business outlook, while strong results and guidance from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ISRG’s long-term thesis remains intact, supported by procedure growth and strong recent performance, but its expensive valuation leaves little room for weak execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins stay near 68%. |
| Improving |
| gross margin falls below 66% next year |
Gross margin: 68.37% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 67.5% to 68.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 21, 202668.366845 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Non-GAAP* gross profit margin to be within a range of 68.7% to 69.3% of revenue in 2026.” “This range includes an estimated impact from tariffs of 1.0% of revenue.” Gross profit was $2.084 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Repurchase shares actively, about $1.1B in Q1 2026 | The company actively buys back shares, returning value. | Intact | share repurchases drop below $500M per quarter next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.03 → $12.48 · observed estimates
$13.28B → $13.33B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.03 | $13,280,918,150 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-07-25 | $12.02 | $13,239,642,400 | 26 / 31 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.02 | $13,239,642,400 | 26 / 31 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.04 | $13,277,819,220 | 16 / 25 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.04 | $13,277,819,220 | 16 / 25 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.07 | $13,258,938,380 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.07 | $13,258,938,380 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.08 | $13,283,646,107 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-01 | $12.08 | $13,283,646,107 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.07 | $13,249,549,360 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-08-03 | $12.07 | $13,249,549,360 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.07 | $13,249,549,360 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-08-05 | $12.07 | $13,249,549,360 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-08-06 | $12.08 | $13,273,631,158 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-07 | $12.08 | $13,273,631,158 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.07 | $13,249,549,360 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-08-09 | $12.07 | $13,249,549,360 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-08-10 | $12.08 | $13,273,631,158 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.07 | $13,249,549,360 | 27 / 32 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.08 | $13,273,631,158 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-14 | $12.08 | $13,273,631,158 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-15 | $12.08 | $13,273,631,158 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-16 | $12.08 | $13,273,631,158 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-17 | $12.08 | $13,273,631,158 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-18 | $12.08 | $13,273,631,158 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-19 | $12.08 | $13,273,631,158 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-20 | $12.08 | $13,273,631,158 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-21 | $12.08 | $13,273,631,158 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-22 | $12.08 | $13,273,765,491 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-23 | $12.08 | $13,273,765,491 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-24 | $12.08 | $13,273,765,491 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-25 | $12.08 | $13,273,765,491 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-26 | $12.08 | $13,273,765,491 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-27 | $12.08 | $13,273,765,491 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-28 | $12.08 | $13,273,765,491 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-29 | $12.08 | $13,273,765,491 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-30 | $12.08 | $13,273,765,491 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-08-31 | $12.08 | $13,273,765,491 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-09-01 | $12.08 | $13,273,765,491 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-09-02 | $12.08 | $13,273,765,491 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-09-03 | $12.08 | $13,273,765,491 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-09-04 | $12.08 | $13,273,765,491 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-09-05 | $12.08 | $13,273,765,491 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-09-06 | $12.08 | $13,273,765,491 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-09-07 | $12.08 | $13,273,765,491 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-09-08 | $12.08 | $13,273,765,491 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-09-09 | $12.08 | $13,273,756,928 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-09-10 | $12.08 | $13,273,743,968 | 17 / 25 |
| 2026-09-11 | $12.08 | $13,273,752,531 | 18 / 25 |
| 2026-09-12 | $12.08 | $13,273,752,531 | 18 / 25 |
| 2026-09-13 | $12.08 | $13,273,752,531 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-09-14 | $12.08 | $13,273,752,531 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-09-15 | $12.08 | $13,273,756,001 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-09-16 | $12.08 | $13,273,756,001 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-09-17 | $12.08 | $13,273,756,001 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-09-18 | $12.08 | $13,273,756,001 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-09-19 | $12.08 | $13,273,756,001 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-09-20 | $12.08 | $13,273,756,001 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-09-21 | $12.08 | $13,273,756,001 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-09-22 | $12.08 | $13,273,756,001 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-09-23 | $12.08 | $13,273,756,001 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-09-24 | $12.08 | $13,273,756,001 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-09-25 | $12.08 | $13,273,756,001 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-09-26 | $12.08 | $13,273,756,001 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-09-27 | $12.08 | $13,273,756,001 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-09-28 | $12.08 | $13,273,756,001 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-09-29 | $12.08 | $13,273,756,001 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-09-30 | $12.08 | $13,273,756,001 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-10-01 | $12.08 | $13,273,756,001 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-10-02 | $12.08 | $13,273,222,668 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-10-03 | $12.08 | $13,273,222,668 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-10-04 | $12.08 | $13,273,222,668 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-10-05 | $12.08 | $13,273,222,668 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-10-06 | $12.09 | $13,276,722,668 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-10-07 | $12.09 | $13,276,722,668 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-10-08 | $12.10 | $13,276,722,668 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-10-09 | $12.10 | $13,276,722,668 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-10-10 | $12.10 | $13,276,722,668 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-10-11 | $12.10 | $13,274,012,668 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-10-12 | $12.10 | $13,274,012,668 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-10-13 | $12.10 | $13,274,012,668 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-10-14 | $12.10 | $13,274,012,668 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-10-15 | $12.10 | $13,274,012,668 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-10-16 | $12.10 | $13,274,012,668 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-10-17 | $12.10 | $13,274,012,668 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-10-18 | $12.10 | $13,274,012,668 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-10-19 | $12.10 | $13,274,012,668 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-10-20 | $12.11 | $13,266,612,668 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-10-21 | $12.30 | $13,316,687,528 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.38 | $13,330,808,503 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.39 | $13,333,245,132 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-10-24 | $12.40 | $13,333,514,631 | 17 / 24 |
| 2026-10-25 | $12.40 | $13,333,514,631 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-10-26 | $12.44 | $13,329,911,687 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.44 | $13,329,911,687 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.46 | $13,331,754,962 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.46 | $13,331,754,962 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.48 | $13,331,754,962 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-10-31 | $12.48 | $13,331,754,962 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-11-01 | $12.48 | $13,331,754,962 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-11-02 | $12.48 | $13,331,754,962 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-11-03 | $12.48 | $13,331,754,962 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-11-04 | $12.48 | $13,331,754,962 | 17 / 24 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 26 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 11 recorded
4 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.