Innovative Solutions and Support Inc (ISSC)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$18.35+1.27%
Close 2026-09-03 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ISSC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ISSC — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-21
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 21, 2026, Innovative Solutions and Support, Inc., a Pennsylvania corporation (the “Company”), entered into a Membership Interest Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Sparton Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“Seller”), pursuant to which the Company acquired all of the issued and outstanding membership interests (the “Membership Interests”) of Sparton Aydin, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company doing business as Aydin Di…
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it may signal a positive shift for ISSC and its peers.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the industrials sector exceeds 5% again.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth in the industrials sector remains below 5%.
Why it matters: Moving toward the $250 million revenue goal shows the company's growth and market strength.
Supportive ifManagement shares updates on revenue progress. They are getting closer to the $250 million goal.
Worry ifNo update or a downgrade on the revenue target progress.
Why it matters: Free cash flow over $15 million shows strong cash generation. This supports future investments.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported above $15 million for the full fiscal year 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow below $10 million shows possible cash generation problems.
Why it matters: Successful launches could boost sales. They would help reach the $250 million revenue goal.
Supportive ifManagement reports successful product launches. They also see more sales from new products.
Worry ifNew product launches fail to gain traction, leading to stagnant or declining revenue.
Why it matters: Changes in RFP status can show shifts in demand and competition.
Watch forAt least one peer reports a strong increase in RFP status.
Also watch forAt least one peer reports a decline in RFP status.
Why it matters: Successful integration of Aydin Displays and Honeywell assets is key for growth. It will show how well the company can expand its product offerings and revenue.
Supportive ifManagement says Aydin Displays and Honeywell assets are integrating well. This could add $10 million in revenue.
Worry ifProblems with integration might lead to delays. This could reduce revenue from the new assets.
Why it matters: Acquisitions can boost growth and help ISSC reach its revenue target. Progress here is crucial for long-term success.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a completed acquisition that adds at least $10M in revenue.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions are planned for the next quarter. This shows growth plans are stuck.
Why it matters: Good integration can improve products. This can help increase sales in military areas.
Supportive ifAydin Displays contributes at least $4 million in revenue in the next quarter.
Worry ifAydin Displays may not meet revenue goals or face integration problems.
Why it matters: Getting F-16 revenue back to normal is key. It helps growth and keeps margins stable.
Supportive ifF-16 revenue in Q3 is over $7 million. This shows signs of recovery.
Worry ifF-16 revenue is still below $7 million. This shows ongoing problems with production or demand.
Why it matters: A gross margin above 50% shows good cost management. This helps make more money.
Supportive ifGross margin remains above 50% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin drops below 45% in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth supports the company's goal of reaching $250 million in annual revenue by 2029.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 10% compared to the same quarter last year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 5% compared to the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow shows good financial health. It helps with important investments.
Supportive ifFree cash flow exceeds $10 million in Q3.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below $5 million in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$245 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $690 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,866 loss on $10,000 · 48.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.