Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Invesco (IVZ)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$27.08-8.02%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.28 → 3.31 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for IVZ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt reduction and dividend increase | A supporting condition in Invesco's published investment case. The stated target is Redeem >= $500 million senior notes in 2026-Q1. | Improving | No significant debt reduction or dividend raise in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
IVZ is a financial business with a growth-and-execution thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or durable compounder at this stage. The multi-year view is mixed: organic growth and balance-sheet progress are positive, while recent performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence describes IVZ as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning current expectations appear cautious. The model also marks pricing as justified and fragility as low, but confidence is medium, so the valuation signal is not decisive.
Near term, the latest quarter showed positive long-term inflows, revenue growth, lower sequential expenses, and a higher adjusted operating margin. The company also reduced net debt, though capital allocation is mixed and expense management remains behind its stated priority. The recent earnings miss and a run of misses keep execution risk relevant despite the reported momentum improvement.
The multi-year thesis depends on IVZ sustaining positive organic growth and turning better operating measures into stronger financial performance. Near term, a guidance cut or lower interest rates would be unfavorable under the supplied scenarios, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, IVZ has encouraging growth and balance-sheet evidence, but the weak recent performance and earnings-miss pattern leave the thesis unconfirmed. The key test is whether execution improves without a guidance setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Invesco's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $2.03 in 2026. |
| Broken |
| EPS guidance falls below $1.80 for 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Positive organic growth via net inflows | Invesco grows assets with $22 billion net inflows in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Net inflows fall below $15 billion in any quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Long-term AUM excludes money market and non-management fee earning AUM.” “| $345.3 | m | $230.4 | m | 49.9 | % | ($12.5 | m) | N/A || Diluted EPS | $0.76 | $0.51 | 49.0 | % | ($0.03) | N/A || Adjusted Financial Measures (1) || Net revenues | $1,329.1 | m | $1,264.3 | m | 5.1 | % | $1,104.6 | m | 20.3 | % || Adjusted operating income | $498.7 | m | $436.0 | m | 14.4 | % | $344.4 | m | 44.8 | % || Adjusted operating margin | 37.5 | % | 34.5 | % | 31.2 | % || Adjusted net income attributable to Invesco Ltd.” Revenue was $1.873 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Increased common share buybacks | A supporting condition in Invesco's published investment case. The stated target is >= $40 million in buybacks in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Buybacks drop below $20 million in any quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.23 → $3.31 · observed estimates
$5.81B → $5.76B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.23 | $5,811,677,371 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.23 | $5,811,677,371 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.21 | $5,924,493,260 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.24 | $5,836,727,371 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.24 | $5,836,727,371 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.21 | $5,924,493,260 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.21 | $5,924,493,260 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.27 | $5,885,427,371 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.27 | $5,885,427,371 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.27 | $5,885,427,371 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.27 | $5,885,427,371 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.24 | $5,877,563,800 | 13 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.23 | $5,881,751,730 | 13 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.23 | $5,881,751,730 | 13 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.26 | $5,877,060,288 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.26 | $5,877,060,288 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.22 | $5,894,169,920 | 13 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.26 | $5,877,060,288 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.26 | $5,877,060,288 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.26 | $5,877,060,288 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.26 | $5,877,060,288 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.26 | $5,877,060,288 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.26 | $5,877,060,288 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.26 | $5,877,060,288 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.26 | $5,877,060,288 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.26 | $5,877,060,288 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.27 | $5,883,269,385 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.27 | $5,882,745,187 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.27 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.27 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.27 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.27 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.27 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.27 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.28 | $5,882,745,187 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.28 | $5,881,743,535 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.28 | $5,843,843,535 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.28 | $5,857,080,705 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.29 | $5,857,080,705 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.29 | $5,865,780,705 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.29 | $5,858,872,501 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.29 | $5,858,872,501 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.28 | $5,858,872,501 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.29 | $5,861,147,813 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.27 | $5,842,982,348 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.27 | $5,842,982,348 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.27 | $5,842,982,348 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.27 | $5,842,982,348 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.27 | $5,842,982,348 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.27 | $5,842,982,348 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.27 | $5,842,982,348 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.27 | $5,842,982,348 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.28 | $5,842,982,348 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.27 | $5,826,357,348 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.27 | $5,826,357,348 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.27 | $5,826,357,348 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.27 | $5,826,357,348 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.29 | $5,784,329,806 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.30 | $5,785,829,806 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.29 | $5,785,829,806 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.29 | $5,785,829,806 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.29 | $5,785,829,806 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.29 | $5,785,829,806 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.29 | $5,765,840,019 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.31 | $5,755,753,200 | 8 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.