Jacobs Solutions (J)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$146.23-0.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Jacobs Solutions grows revenue about 10% a year, backed by strong contract wins. Profit margins stay near 14.75%. The company repurchased $472 million of shares, showing smart capital use. Free cash flow yield is steady at 3%.
Growth could slow if contract wins weaken or margins compress below 14%. Volatile management and soft guidance pose risks. Rising debt and capital allocation issues may pressure returns.
The price is about 2% below our fair value near $134, reflecting roughly 10% revenue growth. Our fair value is 15% below the Street median, so the market prices in moderate growth but not peak optimism.
Breaks if: Share repurchases fall significantly below $472 million YTD
Breaks if: Free cash flow yield falls below 2%
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 14%
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth and strategic acquisitions. The current thesis state indicates a cautious outlook due to mixed recent performance and sector headwinds.
The valuation appears expensive compared to peers, with an expectations gap suggesting that the market is pricing in higher growth than what has been realized. The premium over peers indicates that investors may have high expectations for J's future performance.
Management has shown robust earnings quality and is on track with key priorities like increasing guidance and completing acquisitions. However, there is moderate risk due to past performance misses, which could affect future results.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for J. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could signal trouble for J's growth prospects.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company secured a significant contract for a $750 million Utah water canal project. This win enhances growth in the Infrastructure & Advanced Facilities Segment. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26
Jacobs has raised its FY 2026 guidance for the second consecutive quarter, reflecting strong business momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, J's performance will depend on its ability to navigate sector challenges while executing on its growth strategies. Not investment advice.