Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-26 · fmp
Jacobs Solutions (J)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$147.54-7.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.58 → 9.51 EPS · FY ending Sep 26, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for J yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share repurchases of at least $472 million YTD | The company repurchased $472 million of shares, showing smart capital use. | Intact | Share repurchases fall significantly below $472 million YTD | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “So far in this fiscal year, we have acquired the remaining stake in PA Consulting, repurchased $472 million of our shares and raised our quarterly dividend by 12.5%, while optimizing our capital structure and reducing our weighted average interest rate.” “Net Revenue Growth of 12.3% and 8.2% y/y, Respectively Robust Backlog Growth of 21% y/y with TTM Book-to-Bill Ratio of 1.4x Unlocking Full Value of Asset Lifecycle Strategy through Transaction for Remaining Stake in PA Consulting Strategically Repurchased $252 Million of Jacobs Shares in Q1, Announced 12.5% Dividend Increase Increasing FY 2026 Adj.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-26 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
J is a growth-oriented industrials business with robust earnings quality, rather than a clear turnaround. Its long-term thesis is supported by raised fiscal 2026 guidance and PA Consulting growth, but recent performance trails its industry cohort and the overall signal has shifted to mixed.
The valuation evidence is mixed: J is described as cheap versus peers, yet it also carries a 55% premium versus peers, and the value assessment is expensive. The expectations gap is 0.31, but model confidence is low, so the evidence does not clearly establish what the market already assumes.
Near term, revenue growth and higher fiscal 2026 guidance support the business picture, while the latest quarter was missed and recent performance sits below the industry cohort. PA Consulting grew 17% year over year in Q2 2026, and expected cost synergies increased to over $20 million within 24 months. Management has delivered on stated priorities, though sector conditions are a headwind and CEO transitions add uncertainty.
The multi-year thesis depends partly on sustaining raised guidance and converting PA Consulting growth and synergies into results. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage management credibility. Industrials bellwethers such as PWR, FIX, and EME are also useful signals: continued earnings strength would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next one to three years, J has credible growth and integration progress, but mixed recent results, sector headwinds, and an expensive value assessment temper the thesis. The evidence supports continued monitoring rather than a settled long-term view. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Free cash flow yield near 3% | Free cash flow yield is steady at 3%. | Intact | Free cash flow yield falls below 2% | Free cash flow yield: 3.39% As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20263.39 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross margin near 14.75% | Profit margins stay near 14.75%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 14% | Gross margin: 19.89% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~14.75%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202619.887671 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 10% annually | A primary condition in Jacobs Solutions's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 34.46% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202634.456528 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.58 → $9.51 · observed estimates
$10.81B → $10.77B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | $9.58 | $10,814,455,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.58 | $10,814,455,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.58 | $10,814,455,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.58 | $10,814,455,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.58 | $10,814,455,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.58 | $10,814,455,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.58 | $10,814,455,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.58 | $10,814,455,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.58 | $10,814,455,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.59 | $10,731,455,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.59 | $10,731,455,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.59 | $10,731,455,667 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.58 | $10,710,989,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.58 | $10,710,989,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.58 | $10,710,989,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.58 | $10,710,989,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.58 | $10,710,989,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.58 | $10,710,989,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.58 | $10,710,989,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.58 | $10,748,641,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.58 | $10,748,641,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.58 | $10,748,641,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.58 | $10,748,641,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.58 | $10,748,641,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.58 | $10,748,641,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.58 | $10,748,641,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.58 | $10,748,641,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.55 | $10,765,587,691 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.51 | $10,765,587,691 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.51 | $10,765,587,691 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.51 | $10,765,587,691 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.51 | $10,765,587,691 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.51 | $10,765,587,691 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.51 | $10,765,587,691 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.51 | $10,765,587,691 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.51 | $10,765,587,691 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.51 | $10,765,587,691 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.51 | $10,765,587,691 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.51 | $10,765,587,691 | 3 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.