JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$24.58+2.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JAKK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 27.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -60.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 87.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers
JAKK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-24
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 23, 2026, we issued a press release announcing our second quarter results for 2026. Following the issuance of the press release, on July 23, 2026 at 5:00 p.m. ET / 2:00 p.m. PT, we hosted a teleconference and webcast for analysts, investors, media and others to discuss the results and other business topics. Such financial information included in the Exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Sec…
Why it matters: The dividend shows that management wants to give cash back to shareholders. This is important, even with challenges.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe Board cuts the quarterly cash dividend below $0.25 per share.
Why it matters: Better earnings would show a recovery after a big drop in revenue and income.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows revenue above $106.7M and operating income above -$5.6M.
Worry ifThe Q2 earnings report shows revenue under $106.7M. Operating income is still negative.
Why it matters: If the consumer discretionary sector grows, it may show a recovery. This could help JAKK.
Supportive ifThe consumer discretionary sector reports revenue growth for the first time in three years.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains negative.
Why it matters: The dividend shows JAKK cares about giving value to shareholders. This can help investor trust.
Supportive ifDividend is paid as scheduled without any changes.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is late or smaller.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $305 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,377 loss on $10,000 · 23.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows JAKK's promise to return cash to shareholders. It shows financial stability.
Supportive ifThe dividend is paid on time. This shows management cares about capital use.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is late or canceled. This means there may be financial issues.
Why it matters: Management aims for about $246 million in revenue. Confirmation shows JAKK is on track to meet its growth target.
Supportive ifFull-year revenue reported at or above $245 million.
Worry ifFull-year revenue is below $240 million.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if JAKK can maintain its profit trend. Investors will look for signs of continued earnings improvement.
Watch forQ3 net income turns positive again, exceeding $5 million.
Also watch forQ3 net income falls back into a loss, worse than -$4 million.