JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$32.99-3.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JAKK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -60.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 58.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JAKK — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-23
Other Events. On October 20, 2026, our Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per common share. The dividend will be payable on December 28, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on November 27, 2026. A copy of such release is annexed hereto as Exhibit 10.1.
Why it matters: The board declared a $0.25 dividend for December. A later cut would break the stated goal of keeping that payout.
Worry ifThe board declares another $0.25 dividend per share each quarter.
Less concerning ifThe board cuts or skips a quarterly dividend below $0.25 per share.
Why it matters: JAKKS reported a third-quarter earnings beat and has a stated goal to improve earnings. The next results can show if that progress lasts.
Supportive ifThe next reported quarter shows higher earnings than the same quarter last year.
Worry ifThe next reported quarter shows lower earnings than the same quarter last year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $283 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,534 loss on $10,000 · 15.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.