Jabil (JBL)
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$310.57+1.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JBL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 41 industry peers
JBL — CEO transition
Dated 2026-01-28
Director — Thomas T. Edman, Raejeanne Skillern: Two new directors were appointed to the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows good cost control. It also shows the company runs well.
Supportive ifCore operating margin is at or above 5.8%.
Worry ifCore operating margin is below 5.8%.
Why it matters: Achieving this target shows Jabil's ability to generate cash and fund growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow reported at $1.4 billion or more.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow reported below $1.4 billion.
Why it matters: A drop would show better efficiency and cost control.
Supportive ifRestructuring charges will be less than $40 million in fiscal 2026.
Worry ifRestructuring charges will be more than $50 million in fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in EPS guidance indicates better earnings potential. This can attract more investors.
Supportive ifManagement says EPS will be higher for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifManagement maintains or lowers EPS guidance for fiscal 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$196 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $520 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,554 loss on $10,000 · 25.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher revenue guidance would show growth and confidence in the market.
Supportive ifRevenue guidance for FY2026 raised above $27 billion.
Worry ifRevenue guidance for FY2026 remains below $27 billion.
Why it matters: Strong demand in AI infrastructure is key to Jabil's growth narrative.
Watch forManagement says AI infrastructure demand is strong in Q4.
Also watch forManagement says AI infrastructure demand is slowing down in Q4.
Why it matters: This range will show if Jabil can maintain strong growth momentum in fiscal 2026.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue guidance meets or exceeds $10 billion.
Worry ifQ4 revenue guidance falls below $9.2 billion.
Why it matters: Higher EPS guidance shows that the company is making more money. This boosts investor confidence.
Supportive ifCore diluted EPS guidance raised above $12.70.
Worry ifCore diluted EPS guidance remains at or below $12.70.