Johnson Controls (JCI)
NYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-07-07
$140.62-1.47%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $140.62. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $141 the market pays 32× p/e — above the 24× p/e peer median but in line with its own 31× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $115 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $140–$180. Note: our $115 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($140–$180). Not investment advice.
$140.00 – $180.00 (median $171.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-09
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 101% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 17.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $4.20/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $171.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $44.90 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $34.49 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $23.68 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $46.68 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $115.64 | 23.8 | 4.85 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $62.85 | 14.0 | 5.50 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $49.48 | 21.7 | 2.28 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $114.27 | 23.8 | 4.79 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $69.98 | 1.8 | 39.79 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $128.82 | 26.9 | 4.79 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $31.05 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $146.28 | 30.5 | 4.79 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $109.94 | 23.8 | 4.61 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $225.40 | 23.8 | 9.45 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $63.01 | 21.7 | 2.90 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $159.82 | 23.8 | 6.70 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $90.11 | 1.8 | 51.24 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $180.17 | 26.9 | 6.70 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $204.59 | 30.5 | 6.70 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $351.70 | 23.8 | 14.75 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $74.03 | 21.7 | 3.40 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $188.14 | 23.8 | 7.89 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $106.08 | 1.8 | 60.32 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $212.10 | 26.9 | 7.89 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $240.85 | 30.5 | 7.89 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.