Johnson Controls (JCI)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$144.94+1.91%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JCI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 41.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JCI — officer change
Dated 2026-06-03
Director — Irene Esteves: Appointment of a new director to the Board.
Why it matters: This will show if the company can manage costs effectively. Lower leverage could hurt margins.
Worry ifOperating leverage was less than 45% for Q4.
Less concerning ifOperating leverage was 45% or more for Q4.
Why it matters: Her experience may help with decisions and governance. This could affect long-term growth.
Watch forThey shared good plans after her appointment. They made positive decisions.
Also watch forThere were no clear changes or improvements after her appointment.
Why it matters: Updates on the $5 billion share buyback show trust in financial health.
Supportive ifBig share buybacks were announced and completed this quarter.
Worry ifNo updates on share repurchases or a pause in the program.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS target shows strong profits and good cost control. It shows the company's financial health.
Supportive ifQ4 adjusted EPS reported at $1.55 or higher.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EPS reported below $1.55.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$135 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $283 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,272 loss on $10,000 · 12.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this target shows strong demand and execution. It confirms the company's growth strategy is working.
Supportive ifQ4 organic sales growth reported at 9% or higher.
Worry ifQ4 organic sales growth was below 9%.