Johnson Controls (JCI)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$140.53-6.26%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · JCI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 28.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
JCI — President transition
Dated 2026-09-30
Vice President and President, Global Commercial and Field Operations — Julie Brandt: The departure is described as a planned transition connected to operating model changes, with an advisory bridge period and standard severance, indicating an orderly exit rather than a sudden shock.
Why it matters: JCI set adjusted free cash flow conversion near 95% for FY27. A miss would weaken the cash result tied to its growth plans.
Worry ifFY27 adjusted free cash flow conversion is below 95%.
Less concerning ifFY27 adjusted free cash flow conversion reaches or exceeds about 95%.
Why it matters: EMEA organic sales grew 3% in Q4, while management cited pressure from Middle East conflicts. A decline would mark a setback.
Worry ifEMEA organic sales decline year over year.
Less concerning ifEMEA organic sales stay positive year over year, as in Q4's 3% growth.
Why it matters: JCI set FY27 organic sales growth guidance at 11% to 12%. Results below that range would break the growth pace seen in Q4.
Worry ifFY27 organic sales growth falls below 11%.
Less concerning ifFY27 organic sales growth is 11% or higher, within management's 11% to 12% range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$128 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $351 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,272 loss on $10,000 · 12.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.