Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. (JELD)
NYSEIndustrialsConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.01-7.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for JELD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA between $100 million and $150 million in 2026 | The company targets adjusted EBITDA between $100 million and $150 million. | Broken | adjusted EBITDA falls below $100 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk cyclical business with a turnaround-like thesis, rather than a proven durable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state, with medium evidence confidence and recent financial performance below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence describes JELD as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative and model confidence is low. The priced-in tag is justified, and the low fragility reading means the evidence does not show concentrated fragility, but it does not remove the weak fundamentals or high risk.
Near term, the risk of another earnings miss is elevated, with a record of consecutive misses; a guidance cut after the recent raise would also damage confidence. In 2026-Q2, adjusted EBITDA improved year over year, but revenue and volume/mix were lower; lower six-month capital spending and announced debt extensions show progress, while cash generation and liquidity remain priorities.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether productivity and cost control translate into steadier operating results and disciplined cash generation. Completion of the announced financing steps matters for liquidity, while guidance credibility and earnings execution are key risks. Industrials bellwethers such as BA, CAT, and UNP may signal whether the sector backdrop supports or weakens the business.
Over a 1-3 year view, JELD has some cost and financing progress, but the evidence still points to weak performance, elevated near-term earnings risk, and a challenging sector backdrop. The long-term thesis hinges on execution, liquidity progress, and credible guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cost cuts and restructuring improve efficiency. |
| Improving |
| no margin improvement or cost savings realized in next 4 quarters |
Operating margin: 1.1% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: sustained cost savings and margin improvement. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Nov 4, 20261.099051 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful new product launches supporting growth | New product launches like the Curator fiberglass door collection support growth. | Intact | no meaningful new product launches or sales impact in next 4 quarters | 1 launch (Curator) vs target of meaningful launches JELD-WEN launched the Curator fiberglass door collection in June 2026, reinforcing growth objectives despite recent revenue misses. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $3.05 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in JELD-WEN Holding, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.05 billion. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $3.05 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $798.507M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.05 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026798,507,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.20 → $-0.26 · observed estimates
$3.16B → $3.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.20 | $3,155,639,523 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.20 | $3,155,639,523 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.25 | $3,155,725,270 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.25 | $3,155,725,270 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.20 | $3,155,639,523 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.25 | $3,155,725,270 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.25 | $3,155,725,270 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.25 | $3,155,725,270 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.20 | $3,155,639,523 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.25 | $3,155,725,270 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.25 | $3,155,725,270 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.25 | $3,155,725,270 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.24 | $3,155,725,270 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.20 | $3,155,639,523 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.20 | $3,218,585,877 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.20 | $3,218,585,880 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.20 | $3,218,585,880 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.20 | $3,218,585,880 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.20 | $3,218,585,877 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.20 | $3,218,585,877 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.20 | $3,218,585,877 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.20 | $3,218,585,877 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.20 | $3,218,585,877 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.20 | $3,218,585,877 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.20 | $3,218,585,877 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.20 | $3,218,585,877 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.26 | $3,220,045,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.26 | $3,219,715,127 | 3 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.