Kadant Inc. (KAI)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$298.76+0.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KAI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers
KAI — credit agreement
Dated 2026-04-30
Regulation FD Disclosure. A copy of the press release issued by the Company in connection with the Acquisition is furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K and attached hereto as Exhibit 99. The information contained in this Item 7.01 (including Exhibit 99) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing…
Why it matters: A growing backlog indicates strong future demand. A decline may signal weakening orders.
Supportive ifBacklog is over $340 million. This shows strong order intake.
Worry ifBacklog is under $320 million. This suggests possible demand issues.
Why it matters: If Kadant integrates well, it can improve its skills and reach. This is key for gaining benefits from the acquisition.
Supportive ifManagement says they have met their goals. They see benefits from Kadant Profil.
Worry ifThere are problems or delays with integration. This affects the expected benefits from the acquisition.
Why it matters: Stable gross margins show good cost management. They also show better product mix.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 43% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 42% in Q3.
Why it matters: An increase would signal strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifManagement announces an increase in the dividend per share from $0.36.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend payment despite strong earnings.
Why it matters: This range shows what management expects for profit. Meeting or beating it means strong performance.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported within or above the guidance range of $12.33 to $12.68.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS was below $12.33.
Why it matters: Organic revenue trends show how healthy the business is. Stabilizing or improving is important for long-term growth.
Watch forOrganic revenue growth is getting better. It is improving from the current -1% decline.
Also watch forOrganic revenue keeps declining beyond -1%.
Why it matters: Q2 earnings will show if revenue growth continues after the recent miss. Investors will focus on this for future growth prospects.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Stable organic growth shows strong demand. It also means good integration of acquisitions.
Supportive ifOrganic revenue growth reported above 8% in Q3.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth reported below 5% in Q3.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding guidance shows strong demand and execution. It confirms growth momentum.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at $307 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $296 million.
Why it matters: Organic revenue growth shows the health of the core business. A decline may signal deeper issues.
Worry ifOrganic revenue grew by 8% or more compared to last year.
Less concerning ifOrganic revenue growth was less than 0%. This shows a decline.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend shows commitment to returning value to shareholders. A cut may signal financial strain.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the dividend payment for Q2 remains at or above $0.36 per share.
Worry ifManagement says they will cut the dividend payment.
Why it matters: This acquisition is key to Kadant's growth strategy. Updates will clarify its impact on revenue and operations.
Supportive ifManagement shares a clear update. The acquisition helps products and boosts revenue.
Worry ifThere are no updates. There are also no negative comments about the acquisition's growth impact.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$136 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $365 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,422 loss on $10,000 · 24.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.