KBR, Inc. (KBR)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.82-1.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KBR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -32.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 7.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
KBR — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-10
The company amended and restated severance and change in control agreements for its executive officers.
Why it matters: A better margin means lower costs and better operations. This helps gain investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA margin is more than 13.1%.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA margin is less than 13.1%.
Why it matters: Large contract awards would boost KBR's revenue outlook and validate its market position.
Supportive ifNew contract awards exceed $1 billion in Q2.
Worry ifNew contract awards fall below $500 million in Q2.
Why it matters: If revenue stabilizes or improves, it shows recovery from declines. This supports future growth.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth turns positive year over year, exceeding the current $1.9 billion.
Worry ifQ2 revenue keeps declining each year. It stays below $1.9 billion.
Why it matters: More cash from operations shows KBR is improving its financial strength. It can support growth and dividends.
Supportive ifKBR reports cash from operating activities rising by more than 10% in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash from operating activities declines or grows less than 5% in the next quarter.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$145 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $376 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,894 loss on $10,000 · 38.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More cash flow from operations shows better financial health. This may help keep dividends stable.
Supportive ifCash flows from ongoing operations are over $110 million.
Worry ifOperating cash flows drop below $110 million.
Why it matters: Higher cash flow shows KBR's ability to manage costs and invest in growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is higher than last quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is lower than last quarter.
Why it matters: Continued revenue decline due to EUCOM runoff would highlight challenges in the U.S. Government segment.
Worry ifQ3 revenues decline year over year more than 5% due to EUCOM runoff.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenues show growth or decline less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could benefit KBR's performance. Slower growth may hurt.
Watch forSector revenue growth jumps back above 8% year over year in the next quarter.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains below 6% year over year in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows KBR cares about giving value to shareholders. It shows good financial health.
Supportive ifKBR maintains the dividend at $0.165 for the next quarter.
Worry ifKBR reduces the dividend per share below $0.165.
Why it matters: A stable backlog shows steady demand and future revenue.
Watch forBacklog and options grow to over $24 billion.
Also watch forBacklog and options fall below $23 billion.
Why it matters: More bookings mean stronger demand. This shows KBR's services can grow.
Supportive ifBookings in core markets exceed $1.8 billion in Q3.
Worry ifBookings in core markets fall below $1.8 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: Cash flow from operations was $50 million in Q2, down from $217 million. Improvement signals better financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $50 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains below $50 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Bookings and options reflect demand trends. A decline could signal weakening market conditions.
Worry ifBookings and options increase to over $2 billion in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifBookings and options decline further below $1.8 billion.
Why it matters: A larger revenue drop would signal deeper issues in KBR's core markets and operations.
Worry ifQ2 revenue down year over year worse than -5%.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Bookings dropped from $2.0 billion to $1.8 billion. Stabilizing or improving bookings signals strong demand.
Supportive ifQ3 bookings are over $1.8 billion. This shows demand is recovering.
Worry ifQ3 bookings fall below $1.8 billion, showing continued weakness.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial stability and care for shareholders. A cut could worry about cash flow.
Watch forDividend per share remains at $0.165.
Also watch forDividend per share is reduced below $0.165.
Why it matters: The overall health of the Industrials sector affects KBR's performance. Slowing growth could impact KBR's results.
Worry ifSector revenue growth speeds up again, supporting KBR's outlook.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down, showing wider industry problems.
Why it matters: Increasing cash flow shows KBR is managing its operations well. This supports financial stability and growth.
Supportive ifCash from operations goes over $110 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations drops below $100 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: New contracts can boost revenue and backlog, indicating growth potential.
Supportive ifKBR announces new contracts totaling over $500 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo significant new contracts are announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future revenue and steady demand.
Supportive ifBacklog grows to over $24 billion by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifBacklog declines or stays below $23 billion.
Why it matters: Higher bookings would indicate strong demand and growth potential. It would support the stability of KBR's backlog.
Supportive ifBookings for Q3 exceed $1.8 billion.
Worry ifBookings for Q3 fall below $1.8 billion.
Why it matters: A better margin shows good cost management. It may mean profits are improving.
Supportive ifOperating income margin improves from 8.7% in Q2 to above 9.0% in Q3.
Worry ifIf operating income margin drops below 8.7% in Q3, it is a concern.