Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
Kelly Services, Inc. (KELYA)
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.91+3.36%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.82 → 1.82 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KELYA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage capital allocation effectively including M&A and financial obligations | A supporting condition in Kelly Services, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain strategic capital allocation discipline. | Intact | capital allocation decisions materially weaken financial position or increase risk | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical recovery thesis: results depend in part on demand across the staffing sector, while the company works to improve margins. The thesis is in a watch state, and its recent signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The evidence labels the current pricing as justified, with low fragility rather than a broad combination of expensive valuation and weak execution. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially forgiving, and the valuation model shows a premium versus peers; the evidence does not provide a direct cheap, fair, or expensive classification.
Near term, revenue remains under pressure, though its decline narrowed from 10.7% in the first quarter of 2026 to 5.8% in the second. Adjusted EBITDA margin, a measure of operating profit before certain costs, improved from 1.5% to 3.0%, and management expects modest year-over-year margin growth for 2026. Earnings results have been uneven, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although the latest reported event was an earnings beat.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether revenue declines continue to narrow and margin improvement persists. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while stronger results and guidance from staffing-sector peers could support sector momentum; weaker peer results could remove that support. The evidence gives only limited detail about longer-term demand drivers.
For the 1-to-3-year view, KELYA is a watch-state recovery story with tangible margin progress but unresolved revenue weakness and elevated risk. Its thesis depends on continued execution and a less adverse staffing backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Quarterly Cash Dividend: Kelly also reported that on August 4, 2026, its board of directors declared a dividend of $0.075 per share.” “Quarterly Cash Dividend: Kelly also reported that on May 5, its board of directors declared a dividend of $0.075 per share.”
Improve adjusted EBITDA margin by at least 100 bps relative to Q1 2026 | Kelly Services aims to improve its profit margin by at least 100 basis points from Q1. | Improving | adjusted EBITDA margin fails to improve by at least 100 bps over the next four quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EBITDA margin of 2.3%, a decrease of 90 bps, reflects near-term margin pressure in ETM, Education, and SET driven by lower gross margins and timing of revenue trends, partially offset by volume-related and structural expense management actions including benefits from our acquisition integration and technology modernization efforts.” “Adjusted EBITDA margin of 1.5%, a decrease of 150 basis points (“bps”) driven primarily by near-term margin pressure in ETM, Education, and SET reflecting lower gross margins and timing of revenue trends, partially offset by volume-related and structural expense management actions including benefits from our acquisition integration and technology modernization efforts.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve sequential year-over-year revenue improvement each quarter | The company targets steady revenue improvement each quarter, despite recent declines. | Broken | year-over-year revenue declines for two or more consecutive quarters | Revenue: $1.038B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: sequential YoY revenue improvement each quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20261,038,200,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “1 Financial Results for the 26-week period ended June 28, 2026: Revenue of $2.1 billion, an 8.3% decrease compared to the corresponding period in 2025.” “Financial Results for the thirteen-week period ended March 29, 2026: Revenue of $1.0 billion, a 10.7% decrease compared to the corresponding quarter of 2025.” Revenue was $1.038 billion in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.71 → $1.82 · observed estimates
$4.23B → $4.25B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.71 | $4,233,590,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.82 | $4,254,556,667 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.