Reading KEX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KEX free→Reading KEX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KEX free→NYSEIndustrialsMarine ShippingSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact KEX's performance compared to sector peers, where it trades above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $143.42. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $143 KEX trades at 22× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $157 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $138–$160. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.62 → $1.62 (-0.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 4 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$99.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$228.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,383.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This growth rate signals Kirby's ability to keep up with sector trends. Strong revenue growth is key for Kirby's strategy.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 6% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 6% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KEX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Kirby Corporation (“Kirby” or the "Company") issued a press release announcing results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. EBITDA, a non-GAAP financial measure, is used in the press release. Kirby defines EBITDA as net earnings attributable to Kirby before interest expense, taxes on income, and depreciation and amortization. Kirby has historically e…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$138.00 – $160.00 (median $158.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-01
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KEX Kirby Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CW Curtiss-Wright | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRS Carpenter Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ATI ATI Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Improve operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Aim to increase cash generated from operations to support growth.
Why it matters: More cash from operations means Kirby can invest in growth. This is important for future plans.
Confirms:Cash from operations goes up compared to Q1.
Disproves:Cash from operations goes down compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Better operating income means Kirby is controlling costs well. This helps long-term profits.
Confirms:Operating income goes up from the last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income goes down or stays the same from the last quarter.
Why it matters: If the sector grows faster, Kirby may benefit. This could improve its revenue outlook.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth speeds up above 6% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth slows further below 6% year over year.
The filing pertains to the approval of amendments to a stock plan for nonemployee directors.