Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
KKR & Co. (KKR)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$98.30-3.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.29 → 7.12 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KKR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful integration of Arctos Partners acquisition | KKR is expanding with the Arctos acquisition. | Intact | Acquisition fails to contribute or causes losses | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
KKR is a financial-sector investment tied to earnings quality and management execution, with a multi-year thesis that is currently on watch. Earnings quality is rated robust, but management is volatile and overall company quality recently declined.
The valuation evidence shows an expectations gap of 0.52, but does not say whether KKR is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers. The priced-in tag is unjustified, while fragility is low and no fragility gates fired, so the evidence does not point to a concentrated fragility concern.
Near-term financial performance is neutral and below the industry cohort, despite a July earnings beat; recent performance has not freshly broken. Integration of Arctos, acquired for $1.4 billion and managing $20 billion in assets as of 2026-Q2, is a stated priority, while Strategic Holdings earnings of $48 million in Q1 and $37 million in Q2 leave the full-year goal above $350 million unproven. The next call’s guidance and delivery on these priorities are key near-term risks.
The unfavorable scenario is a guidance cut, or rate cuts from the current 3.88%, which the evidence says could weigh on KKR and Financials. The favorable scenario is continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers BlackRock, Blackstone, and Apollo, which could support sector momentum. The multi-year view also hinges on completing Arctos integration and achieving the 2026 Strategic Holdings earnings goal.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis combines robust earnings quality with meaningful execution and sector risks, while recent relative performance and company-quality deterioration warrant attention. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The firm grew earnings per share by 10% last quarter. |
| Intact |
| annual dividend falls below $0.74 |
Dividend per share: $0.20 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.78 annualized dividend. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20260.195 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “KKR will establish a new investing business, KKR Solutions, which will include Arctos' current businesses and serve as the home of a scaled multi-asset class secondaries business KKR will build over time • Regular dividend of $0.185 per share of common stock was declared for the quarter • Increase of regular annualized dividend: Beginning with the dividend to be announced with the results of the quarter ending March 31, 2026, KKR intends to increase its regular annualized dividend per share of common stock from $0.74 to $0.78.” “KKR has increased its annualized dividend every year since its C-Corp conversion in 2018 Note: Adj.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Earnings per share growth of at least 10% YoY | The firm grew earnings per share by 10% last quarter. | Intact | EPS growth falls below 5% YoY | Diluted EPS growth: 40% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 10% YoY EPS growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202640 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “KKR will establish a new investing business, KKR Solutions, which will include Arctos' current businesses and serve as the home of a scaled multi-asset class secondaries business KKR will build over time • Regular dividend of $0.185 per share of common stock was declared for the quarter • Increase of regular annualized dividend: Beginning with the dividend to be announced with the results of the quarter ending March 31, 2026, KKR intends to increase its regular annualized dividend per share of common stock from $0.74 to $0.78.” “KKR has increased its annualized dividend every year since its C-Corp conversion in 2018 Note: Adj.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Strategic Holdings Operating Earnings exceed $350 million | It expects over $350 million in Strategic Holdings earnings in 2026. | Intact | earnings fall below $300 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.34 → $7.12 · observed estimates
$13.94B → $12.37B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.34 | $13,936,340,318 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.34 | $13,936,340,318 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.35 | $12,284,556,980 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.30 | $13,936,340,318 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.35 | $12,284,556,980 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.30 | $13,936,340,318 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.30 | $13,936,340,318 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.35 | $12,284,556,980 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.31 | $13,639,412,364 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.38 | $12,385,773,780 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.38 | $12,385,773,780 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.38 | $12,385,773,780 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.33 | $12,475,781,218 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.33 | $12,475,781,218 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.33 | $12,475,781,218 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.39 | $12,385,773,780 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.33 | $12,475,781,218 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.33 | $12,475,781,218 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.39 | $12,475,773,780 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.33 | $12,475,781,218 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.33 | $12,475,781,218 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.33 | $12,475,781,218 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.33 | $12,475,781,218 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.33 | $12,475,781,218 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.33 | $12,475,781,218 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.33 | $12,475,781,218 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.40 | $12,473,857,111 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.40 | $12,473,857,111 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.40 | $12,473,857,111 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.40 | $12,473,857,111 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.40 | $12,473,857,111 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.40 | $12,473,857,111 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.40 | $12,473,857,111 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.40 | $12,473,857,111 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.40 | $12,473,857,111 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.40 | $12,473,857,111 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.40 | $12,473,857,111 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.40 | $12,473,857,111 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.40 | $12,473,857,111 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.39 | $12,473,857,111 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.32 | $12,358,752,610 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.31 | $12,338,828,524 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.31 | $12,338,828,524 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.29 | $12,338,828,524 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.28 | $12,338,828,524 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.26 | $12,361,599,953 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.24 | $12,361,599,953 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.24 | $12,361,599,953 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.24 | $12,361,599,953 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.24 | $12,421,199,953 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.24 | $12,421,199,953 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.23 | $12,421,199,953 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.18 | $12,366,929,553 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.18 | $12,366,929,553 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.18 | $12,367,358,124 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.18 | $12,367,358,124 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.16 | $12,367,358,124 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.16 | $12,367,358,124 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.14 | $12,367,358,124 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.14 | $12,367,358,124 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.13 | $12,373,272,410 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.13 | $12,373,272,410 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.12 | $12,373,272,410 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.12 | $12,373,272,410 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.12 | $12,373,272,410 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.12 | $12,373,272,410 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.12 | $12,373,272,410 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.12 | $12,373,272,410 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.12 | $12,373,272,410 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.12 | $12,373,272,410 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.12 | $12,373,272,410 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.12 | $12,373,272,410 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.12 | $12,373,272,410 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.12 | $12,373,272,410 | 11 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.