CarMax, Inc. (KMX)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$63.29+1.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KMX
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $63 the market pays 23× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 22× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $51 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $31–$66. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $73 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $47.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $51.85 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $177.06 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $52.07 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$31.00 – $66.00 (median $47.50) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-07-29
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.92/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $110.85 |
| 15.8 |
| 6.99 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $42.88 | 14.7 | 2.92 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $152.17 | 0.8 | 185.36 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $35.35 | 12.6 | 2.80 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $39.25 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $61.33 | 21.9 | 2.80 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $44.41 | 15.1 | 2.94 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $66.89 | 14.7 | 4.55 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $169.06 | 0.8 | 205.93 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $57.42 | 12.6 | 4.55 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $99.62 | 21.9 | 4.55 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $71.65 | 14.7 | 4.87 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $181.09 | 0.8 | 220.59 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $61.50 | 12.6 | 4.87 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $106.71 | 21.9 | 4.87 | Analyst | medium |