Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-28 · fmp
CarMax, Inc. (KMX)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$52.60-4.61%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.57 → 3.64 EPS · FY ending Feb 28, 2028 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KMX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase CarMax Auto Finance penetration to at least 43.3% and improve profitability | A supporting condition in CarMax, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is CAF penetration >=43.3% and income stable or growing. | Under Pressure | CAF penetration falls below 41% or income declines more than 5% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a business-recovery and execution thesis, not a clearly established durable compounder. The multi-year view is on watch: management priorities show progress, but recent performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
Valuation is neutral, and KMX carries an 11% premium to peers, while the expectations gap is modestly negative. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to an unusually stretched expectations setup.
Near term, results may remain uneven: the latest quarter showed higher revenue, unit sales, and earnings, while overall recent performance is still rated weak. Management is making progress on its growth plan and cost reductions, but financing penetration slipped, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis hinges on whether growth and cost discipline continue while CarMax Auto Finance profitability improves without further weakening in penetration. Sector signals also matter: continued strength from CVNA, PAG, and LAD could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, KMX has signs of operational progress, but the evidence is not yet strong enough to resolve concerns about earnings quality and relative performance. The long-term thesis depends on sustained execution and a stable sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Additionally, CAF financed 22% of Tier 2 volume and was the largest lender in this space, reflecting continued execution of our full spectrum growth strategy.” “• Our inability to recruit, develop and retain associates and maintain positive associate relations.”
Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026Maintain prudent capital allocation with readiness to repurchase shares | A supporting condition in CarMax, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain $1.3 billion repurchase capacity and resume buybacks when appropriate. | Intact | No repurchases and no capital return plan for next 12 months | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Given our second quarter performance, continued momentum, and improving leverage, we intend to resume share repurchases at a modest level in the third quarter of this fiscal year.” “We remain committed to returning capital to shareholders and intend to resume share repurchases in the future at the appropriate time depending upon market conditions, our leverage, and our capital needs, among other factors.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows at least 6% year-over-year to about $8 billion in Q2 2026 | CarMax grows revenue about 6% yearly, reaching $8 billion in Q2 2026. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year | Revenue growth: 19.46% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY revenue growth to $8.0 billion. Target and observation currencies differ. Sep 30, 202619.458491 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We delivered 81% EPS growth as we strengthened our price competitiveness, increased Extended Protection Plan margins, expanded CAF’s share of Tier 2 originations, continued to enhance our digital experience, and drove material SG&A leverage.” ““Our framework targets mid-single-digit used retail unit CAGR and mid-teens adjusted EPS CAGR through fiscal 2030 using fiscal 2026 as a base while maintaining a strong balance sheet and returning excess capital to shareholders in a disciplined manner.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve $200 million SG&A expense reductions by FY27 | A primary condition in CarMax, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is SG&A expenses reduced by $200 million by FY27. | Under Pressure | SG&A expense savings fall short of $150 million by FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We remain on track to achieve targeted SG&A reductions of $200 million in exit rate savings by the end of fiscal 2027.” “We have increased targeted SG&A reductions to $200 million in exit rate savings by the end of fiscal year 2027, up from the prior goal of $150 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.10 → $3.64 · observed estimates
$27.51B → $29.60B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.10 | $27,508,181,470 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.10 | $27,508,181,470 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.08 | $27,636,026,901 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.08 | $27,636,026,901 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.08 | $27,636,026,901 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.08 | $27,636,026,901 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.08 | $27,636,026,901 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.11 | $27,722,560,234 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.11 | $27,722,554,074 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.11 | $27,722,554,074 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.11 | $27,722,554,074 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.11 | $27,722,554,074 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.11 | $27,722,554,074 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.11 | $27,722,554,074 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.11 | $27,722,554,074 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.11 | $27,722,554,074 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.11 | $27,722,554,074 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.11 | $27,722,554,074 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.11 | $27,722,554,074 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.10 | $27,731,400,741 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.10 | $27,731,400,741 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.10 | $27,731,400,741 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.10 | $27,766,134,074 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.10 | $27,766,134,074 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.12 | $27,865,074,437 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.13 | $27,876,362,545 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.13 | $27,876,362,545 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.19 | $28,223,800,362 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.19 | $28,307,282,289 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.19 | $28,307,282,289 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.19 | $28,307,282,289 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.21 | $28,266,038,445 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.47 | $29,057,706,631 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.55 | $29,335,072,965 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.55 | $29,335,072,965 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.55 | $29,335,072,965 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.54 | $29,347,518,404 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.57 | $29,417,346,298 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.57 | $29,417,346,298 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.57 | $29,417,346,298 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.57 | $29,417,346,298 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.57 | $29,417,346,298 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.57 | $29,417,346,298 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.57 | $29,417,346,298 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.57 | $29,417,346,298 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.57 | $29,417,346,298 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.57 | $29,417,346,298 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.57 | $29,417,346,298 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.59 | $29,470,589,731 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.59 | $29,470,589,731 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.59 | $29,470,589,731 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.59 | $29,470,589,731 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.59 | $29,470,589,731 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.59 | $29,470,589,731 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.59 | $29,470,589,731 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.59 | $29,470,589,731 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.59 | $29,470,589,731 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.59 | $29,470,589,731 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.59 | $29,470,589,731 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.59 | $29,470,589,731 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.59 | $29,470,589,731 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.61 | $29,472,703,065 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.61 | $29,472,703,065 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.61 | $29,472,703,065 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.61 | $29,472,703,065 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.61 | $29,472,703,065 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.61 | $29,472,703,065 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.64 | $29,596,175,891 | 13 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 17, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.