CarMax, Inc. (KMX)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$52.60-4.61%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KMX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
KMX — Principal Accounting Officer transition
Dated 2026-10-19
Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer — Darren W. Woodell: The filing discloses the external appointment of a new Vice President, Controller, and Chief Accounting Officer, which is a significant management change but not a departure of a sitting executive.
Why it matters: CarMax said it plans modest repurchases after pausing them. A filing can show whether that plan began and how much capital went to shares.
Supportive ifCarMax reports share repurchases during Q3 FY27, which runs through November 30, 2026.
Worry ifCarMax reports no share repurchases by the December 17 earnings report, or says the plan is paused.
Why it matters: CAF grew its Tier 2 lending, while its loan-loss allowance rose to 3.07% of loans. The next report can show whether growth keeps pace with credit costs.
Watch forCAF's share of Tier 2 loans rises above 22%, while its loan-loss allowance stays at or below 3.07% of loans.
Also watch forCAF's Tier 2 share falls below 22%, or its loan-loss allowance rises above 3.07% of loans.
Why it matters: Lower costs can support profit while CarMax works to grow sales. The goal is due by the end of FY27.
Supportive ifManagement reports at least $200 million in yearly SG&A savings at the FY27 exit rate by February 28, 2027.
Worry ifManagement lowers the $200 million goal or reports less than $200 million in exit-rate savings at FY27 end.
Why it matters: The update can name steps and dates for CarMax's four growth goals. Clear targets let investors track progress.
Watch forThe November 3 update names steps and dates for all four goals: offering, easy service, added value, and lean costs.
Also watch forThe update gives no steps or dates for at least two of the four goals, or delays the update.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$163 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $419 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,610 loss on $10,000 · 26.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.