CarMax, Inc. (KMX)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$63.29+1.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KMX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 23.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers
KMX — President transition
Dated 2026-07-31
Executive Vice President and Chief Innovation and People Officer — Diane Cafritz: Ms. Cafritz is leaving the Company effective December 31, 2026.
Why it matters: New board members could make leadership stronger. They may also help the company plan better.
Supportive ifShareholders agree to add Robert O'Shaughnessy, William Cobb, and Jim Kessler to the board.
Worry ifShareholders do not accept the new board members. This shows they are unhappy with management.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would show good cost control. It would also help make more money.
Supportive ifCarMax reports SG&A reductions of $200 million by the end of fiscal year 2027.
Worry ifSG&A reductions fall short of the $200 million target, indicating ongoing cost issues.
Why it matters: The Strategic Update will give details on key projects and future growth plans. This can affect how investors feel and stock performance.
Watch forCarMax announces the date and details of the Strategic Update meeting.
Also watch forNo news is shared about the Strategic Update meeting.
Why it matters: Meeting this goal shows good cost management. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifSG&A expenses decrease by at least $50 million in Q3.
Worry ifSG&A expenses increase or do not decrease significantly in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$166 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $396 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,969 loss on $10,000 · 49.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This update will show how well management's growth plan is working.
Watch forManagement shares clear details on growth plans during the update.
Also watch forThe update is unclear or does not explain specific growth plans.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show problems in auto finance. This would hurt overall earnings.
Worry ifCAF income declines more than -5% in Q3.
Less concerning ifCAF income stabilizes or increases in Q3.
Why it matters: CarMax is not managing costs well. Better progress could help make more money.
Supportive ifManagement shares a clear plan to cut costs and work better.
Worry ifNo news on cost management or more delays in plans.
Why it matters: Management has stressed cost control but has shown little improvement. This is key for future profits.
Worry ifOperating income improves from -$110.68M in Q4 to above -$50M in Q2.
Less concerning ifOperating income falls more or stays under -$110.68M in Q2.
Why it matters: Better digital tools are important for CarMax's growth.
Supportive ifManagement will share new plans or partnerships. These will help improve digital services.
Worry ifNo news or progress on digital improvements.
Why it matters: Fluctuating cash flow shows challenges in financial health. Stable cash flow is crucial for growth.
Worry ifCash from operations rises to over $500M in Q2.
Less concerning ifCash from operations stays negative or under -$554.27M in Q2.
Why it matters: A larger decline would signal ongoing weakness in CarMax's core business and affect growth.
Worry ifComparable store used unit sales decline worse than -1% in Q3.
Less concerning ifStore used unit sales stay the same or grow each year.
Why it matters: Better digital skills are key to getting customers. They also help increase sales.
Supportive ifCarMax sees a big rise in online retail sales compared to total sales.
Worry ifOnline retail sales do not grow or drop. This shows the digital strategy is not working.
Why it matters: Opening new stores is important for CarMax's growth and market reach.
Supportive ifCarMax opens at least four new stores as planned in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifCarMax fails to open any new stores in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Management wants to make digital services better. This could boost sales and attract customers.
Supportive ifManagement shares a new digital plan with clear goals in Q2.
Worry ifNo news or progress on digital plans in Q2.