Reading KNX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KNX free→Reading KNX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KNX free→NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is robust, meaning cash supports profits. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which works against the company. Peer multiples imply a price about 43% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. If KNX cuts guidance on the next call, that could be negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $81.54. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $82, KNX's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 76× p/e (3.2× the 23× p/e peer median, and 4.0× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~43% near-term growth vs our ~1% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $57 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $64–$94. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 43% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 38.24x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.47 → $0.48 (+2.1% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 74% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$139.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$315.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,891.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost management. This is key for long-term growth.
Confirms:Operating income for Q2 shows an increase from $28.58 million in Q1.
Disproves:If operating income drops more or stays below $28.58 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KNX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS Retirement of Mr. Kevin Knight; Appointment of Mr. David Vander Ploeg as Chair of the Board On June 3, 2026, Mr. Kevin Knight resigned as Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) and member of the Board of Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (the “Company”), effective June 3, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Mr. Knight’s resignat…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$64.00 – $94.00 (median $70.00) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-05
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Cargo Ground Transportation.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KNX Knight-Swift | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ODFL Old Dominion | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JBHT J.B. Hunt | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | full | moderate |
XPO XPO, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SAIA Saia | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Knight-Swift has announced a share buyback program as part of its capital allocation strategy.
Knight-Swift aims to maintain its dividend payout as part of its capital allocation strategy.
Knight-Swift is focused on improving its operating income as part of its cost management strategy.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong cash flow. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Confirms:The company will pay another dividend of $0.20 per share after June 22, 2026.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend payout below $0.20 per share.
Why it matters: A clear announcement would show commitment to returning cash to shareholders. This can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:A formal announcement of the share buyback program with a set dollar amount.
Disproves:No announcement or delay in the buyback program, even after earlier signs.
Why it matters: This buyback could boost earnings per share and show strong capital allocation. Investors will watch how it affects financials over time.
Confirms:The company completes the buyback and reports an increase in earnings per share.
Disproves:The buyback is delayed or canceled, and earnings per share do not improve.
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT Indenture and Notes On May 8, 2026, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (the "Company") completed its previously announced private offering (the "Offering") of $1.5 billion aggregate principal amount of 1.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031 (the "Notes"), including the exercise in full of the initial purchasers' option to purchase up to an additional $200.0 million principal amount of the Notes. The Notes were issued pursuant to an indenture,…
OTHER EVENTS On May 13, 2026, the Company announced that on May 12, 2026 its board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share of common stock. The dividend is payable to the Company's stockholders of record as of June 8, 2026, and is expected to be paid on June 22, 2026.
CREATION OF A DIRECT FINANCIAL OBLIGATION OR AN OBLIGATION UNDER AN OFF-BALANCE SHEET ARRANGEMENT OF A REGISTRANT The information set forth under
UNREGISTERED SALES OF EQUITY SECURITIES The information set forth under