Reading KOP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KOP free→Reading KOP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KOP free→NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although KOP trades above typical for sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 47% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $43.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $43 KOP trades at 11× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $82 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 47% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.49x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $1.10. 0 raised, 3 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$176.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$376.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,396.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Falling below this level shows ongoing problems with profits and rising costs.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA was below $60 million for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA is more than $60 million. This is better than expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KOP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer — Eric D. Brenner: Eric D. Brenner was hired as the new Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KOP Koppers Holdings, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
RS Reliance, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
AA Alcoa | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | elevated |
RGLD Royal Gold | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | full | moderate |
RPM RPM International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated volatile grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=235).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Koppers plans to cease production at its Stickney, Illinois plant by year-end 2026.
Koppers continues to prioritize maintaining its dividend payments to shareholders.
Koppers aims to enhance cash generation from operating activities.
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows strong cash flow and care for shareholders.
Confirms:The company announced a dividend increase to more than $0.09 per share.
Disproves:The company maintains the dividend at $0.09 or cuts it.
Why it matters: Growth in this area is key for stable revenue, especially with other drops.
Confirms:Sales growth in Performance Chemicals exceeds 15% year over year for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Sales growth in Performance Chemicals falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: The closure may affect future profits and how well the company runs. It is an important move.
Confirms:The closure must be finished by the end of 2026 without delays.
Disproves:Delays in the closure may happen because of union talks.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is key for funding operations and maintaining dividend payments.
Confirms:Operating cash flow reported above $50 million for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Operating cash flow reported below $40 million for Q2 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 8, 2026, Koppers Holdings Inc. (the “Company” or “we”) issued a press release announcing first quarter of 2026 results. A copy of the press release is included in this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is furnished herewith.
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On May 8, 2026, the Company announced that it has made a conditional decision to discontinue distillation and chemical manufacturing operations at its facility in Stickney, Illinois, subject to the satisfaction of any bargaining obligations that might exist with the union that represents certain employees at that facility. The conditional decision, which is pending negotiations and consultation with the union, was driven by challenging market…
Regulation FD Disclosure. The Company issued a press release on May 8, 2026 announcing the conditional plan to discontinue distillation and chemical manufacturing operations activities at its facility in Stickney, Illinois. A copy of the press release is included in this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.2 and is furnished herewith. The information in Items 2.02 and 7.01 above, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K, are being furnished under Items…
Director — Laura J. Posadas: Election of a new director and appointment to committees.