Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.20-2.22%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KOS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -41.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KOS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 2, 2026, Kosmos Energy Ltd. (the “Company”) issued a news release announcing results for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the news release issued by the Company is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject t…
Why it matters: GTA is a key part of Kosmos's output. Cargo totals test its annual plan after 18.5 cargos in the first half.
Watch forKosmos reports 32 to 36 gross GTA LNG cargos lifted in 2026.
Also watch forKosmos reports fewer than 32 gross GTA LNG cargos for 2026.
Why it matters: The well was set aside after a casing problem. A repair could restore production from the fault block; no fix would leave that output at risk.
Watch forKosmos reports a repair plan and renewed production from the Winterfell-5 fault block.
Also watch forKosmos reports that the casing issue cannot be fixed, or Winterfell-5 remains shut in.
Why it matters: Kosmos has $2.56 billion of net debt and targets a 20% debt cut this year. Refinancing progress may help manage its debt schedule.
Watch forKosmos reports that its RBL refinancing is complete by the end of Q4 2026.
Also watch forThe refinancing is not complete by the end of Q4, or Kosmos reports a delay.
Why it matters: New Jubilee wells are meant to lift output. A result above 90,000 bopd would show that the latest wells added production.
Supportive ifKosmos reports Jubilee gross oil output above 90,000 bopd after the J50 well comes online.
Worry ifJ50 does not come online, or Jubilee gross oil output stays at or below 90,000 bopd.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$307 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $763 loss on $10,000 · 7.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,309 loss on $10,000 · 43.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The prospect could link to Shell's nearby platform if drilling succeeds. The planned Q1 start is a clear test of this growth option.
Watch forShell starts drilling Trailblazer in Q1 2027 and reports whether the well found oil or gas.
Also watch forDrilling does not start in Q1 2027, or Shell reports the well found no commercial oil or gas.