Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.78-1.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KOS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -35.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KOS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Kosmos Energy Ltd. (the “Company”) issued a news release announcing results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the news release issued by the Company is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to liabili…
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the energy sector rises, it could help Kosmos recover. This is crucial for its performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 2% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Making more products is important. It helps grow revenue in the energy sector.
Supportive ifProduction levels reported at 75,000 boe per day or higher.
Worry ifProduction levels reported below 70,000 boe per day.
Why it matters: Cutting net debt is key. It helps with financial stability and future investments.
Supportive ifNet debt decreases by at least 10% within the next quarter.
Worry ifNet debt does not decrease or increases from current levels.
Why it matters: This report will show if Kosmos can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 2% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue decline or flat growth year over year.
Why it matters: Getting these agreements would make revenue more stable. It would also help growth in the area.
Supportive ifKosmos shares plans for gas sales in Senegal and Mauritania.
Worry ifNo agreements are reached for domestic gas sales by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: A rise in earnings would show recovery and help investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings reported above the prior quarter's results.
Worry ifQ2 earnings reported below the prior quarter's results.
Why it matters: If Kosmos cuts net debt by over 20%, it shows good financial management.
Supportive ifNet debt reduction exceeds 20% by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNet debt reduction is less than 20% by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: What management thinks can affect how investors feel. A change might show a recovery.
Watch forManagement shares a more positive view on how the company will do in the future.
Also watch forManagement keeps or gets more worried about the future.
Why it matters: The sale affects cash flow and lowers debt. This matches management's financial goals.
Supportive ifThe sale of the Ceiba Field and Okume Complex is completed, providing cash for debt reduction.
Worry ifThe sale is delayed or falls through, impacting cash flow and debt reduction plans.
Why it matters: Lower costs help make more money and match management's goals for 2026.
Supportive ifOperating costs drop by 20% year-on-year. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifOperating costs stay the same or change slightly each year. This may show problems.
Why it matters: Higher production helps Kosmos grow and shows it is doing well.
Supportive ifQ2 production levels are over 78,000 boepd. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifQ2 production levels are below 70,000 boepd. This suggests there are challenges.
Why it matters: Keeping capex at this level helps manage financial resources well.
Worry ifFY26 capital spending is at or below $350 million.
Less concerning ifFY26 capital spending is above $350 million.
Why it matters: If Jubilee produces more than 90,000 bopd, it shows good performance and growth.
Supportive ifJubilee production exceeds 90,000 bopd as new wells come online.
Worry ifJubilee production remains below 90,000 bopd despite new wells being online.
Why it matters: Refinancing will improve Kosmos's finances. It will also help reduce debt.
Supportive ifKosmos completes the RBL refinancing process by the end of Q4 2026.
Worry ifRBL refinancing is delayed or not completed by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Reducing debt is key for financial health and hitting management's goals.
Supportive ifKosmos reports a net debt reduction of at least 10% by Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet debt reduction is less than 10% by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting LNG cargo lift guidance shows strong performance and high market demand.
Supportive ifKosmos lifts between 32-36 gross LNG cargos by the end of 2026.
Worry ifLNG cargo lifts fall below 32 by the end of 2026.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$356 on $10,000 · ±3.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $755 loss on $10,000 · 7.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,344 loss on $10,000 · 53.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.