Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc (KPTI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.06-17.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KPTI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Management of R&D and SG&A expenses | A supporting condition in Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is R&D expenses <= 29 million USD and SG&A expenses <= 25 million USD. | Intact | R&D expenses exceed 30 million USD or SG&A expenses exceed 26 million USD | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making biotech with a development program alongside a marketed product. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is progressing on key priorities, but recent financial performance is weak and the latest quarter was missed.
The valuation evidence points to KPTI being cheap versus peers, but confidence in that comparison is low. The expectations gap is sharply negative, and the pricing tag is described as justified, with no fragility gates triggered. The snapshot does not spell out specific market assumptions.
Near term, a further earnings miss is a significant risk, and any guidance cut would weaken the setup; guidance was reaffirmed as of August 2026. Over the multi-year view, XPOVIO revenue has grown modestly and management remains on track with the planned myelofibrosis submission, while lower R&D and SG&A spending show mixed progress on cost discipline.
The thesis hinges on the planned selinexor plus ruxolitinib submission following positive Phase 3 SENTRY results, and on continued XPOVIO revenue growth. Near-term outcomes also depend on whether guidance holds, employment data stabilizes, and healthcare sector leaders continue to report strong results and guidance.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, KPTI’s case rests on execution in its marketed product and myelofibrosis program, but weak performance, loss-making results, and elevated earnings risk leave the thesis fragile. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• R&D and selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses to be in the range of $230 million to $245 million, excluding certain one-time costs that the Company may incur associated with its endometrial cancer program and evaluating financing opportunities and/or strategic transactions.” “3 • R&D and selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses to be in the range of $230 million to $245 million.” Operating income was $-26.760 million in 2026-Q1.
Submission of supplemental New Drug Application for myelofibrosis | The company is advancing its myelofibrosis program, which could drive future growth. | Under Pressure | failure to submit sNDA by the end of 2026 | sNDA submission pending vs target by 2026-12-31 KPTI filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy and received a delisting notice, threatening the ability to complete the sNDA submission by year-end. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Following continued constructive engagement with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the Company remains on track to submit its planned supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) in August under the Accelerated Approval pathway for selinexor in combination with ruxolitinib for patients with myelofibrosis.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
U.S. XPOVIO net product revenue growth | A primary condition in Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=140 million USD. | Under Pressure | falls below $130 million by the end of 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• U.S. XPOVIO net product revenue to be in the range of $115 million to $130 million.” “Multiple Myeloma • Maintain the Company's commercial foundation in the increasingly competitive multiple myeloma marketplace and drive increased XPOVIO revenues.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-3.12 → $-1.79 · observed estimates
$0.16B → $0.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-3.12 | $155,301,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-3.12 | $155,301,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-3.12 | $155,301,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-3.12 | $155,301,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-4.89 | $148,996,600 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-4.89 | $148,996,600 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-4.89 | $148,996,600 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-4.89 | $148,996,600 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-3.42 | $149,001,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-4.89 | $155,207,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-5.35 | $168,531,600 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-5.35 | $168,531,600 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-3.23 | $155,212,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-3.23 | $155,212,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.39 | $174,611,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-3.21 | $174,611,600 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.39 | $174,611,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-3.21 | $174,611,600 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-3.21 | $174,611,600 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-3.21 | $174,611,600 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.39 | $174,611,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.39 | $174,611,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.39 | $174,611,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.39 | $174,611,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.39 | $174,611,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.39 | $174,611,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.27 | $173,568,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.27 | $173,561,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.27 | $173,561,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.27 | $173,561,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.27 | $173,561,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.27 | $173,561,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.27 | $173,561,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.27 | $173,561,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.79 | $172,729,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-1.79 | $172,729,333 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.