Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc (KPTI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.79+1.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KPTI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -40.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 53.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KPTI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-13
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 13, 2026, Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. announced its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 and that it will conduct a previously announced, publicly available conference call to discuss those results and other company updates. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The informatio…
Why it matters: This data will show how well selinexor works in endometrial cancer. It could affect future investments and plans.
Watch forTopline data from the Phase 3 XPORT-EC-042 trial shows good results in progression-free survival.
Also watch forTopline data shows no change in progression-free survival.
Why it matters: Getting capital is key for Karyopharm to support its work and growth.
Supportive ifAn announcement of a new funding round or partnership.
Worry ifNo news about raising capital or forming partnerships.
Why it matters: High operating expenses can hurt profits and growth for Karyopharm.
Worry ifOperating expenses are over $25 million in Q2. This shows poor cost management.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses fall below $20 million in Q2. This shows better cost control.
Why it matters: Securing capital is crucial for funding ongoing operations and R&D. Delays could impact growth plans.
Worry ifKaryopharm says it has raised money or received funding.
Less concerning ifKaryopharm does not secure more capital, affecting its plans.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$324 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $834 loss on $10,000 · 8.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,341 loss on $10,000 · 83.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The SENTRY trial results may affect future products and money made.
Watch forPositive topline results from the SENTRY trial announced by Q3.
Also watch forBad results or delays in sharing SENTRY trial results.
Why it matters: Changes in revenue will show how well Karyopharm competes in the market. It will also show how they manage product sales.
Supportive ifU.S. XPOVIO net product revenue increases above $30.8 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifU.S. XPOVIO net product revenue falls below $30 million, indicating market challenges.
Why it matters: Topline data will show how well selinexor works for myelofibrosis. It may change future treatment guidelines.
Watch forTopline data shows a large drop in spleen size or better overall survival.
Also watch forTopline data shows no big improvement. This raises concerns about how well the treatment works.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector growth speeds up, it may help Karyopharm's performance. A stronger sector can lift all companies.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth is speeding up again. It may reach 10% or more.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth continues to slow below 10%.
Why it matters: Trial results will show how well selinexor works in myelofibrosis. Good results may help investors.
Supportive ifGood results were shared at the ASCO meeting. They show benefits of selinexor in myelofibrosis.
Worry ifResults show no clear benefits or problems from the SENTRY trial.
Why it matters: Topline data could show how well selinexor works in myelofibrosis. This data is key for growth.
Supportive ifTopline data from the 60 mg cohort of the Phase 2 SENTRY-2 trial is announced.
Worry ifThe topline data is late or shows no clear effectiveness.
Why it matters: The FDA's choice will impact how fast selinexor gets approved for myelofibrosis. This could change Karyopharm's market position.
Supportive ifThe FDA gives Priority Review for the sNDA submission. This means a faster review process.
Worry ifThe FDA denies Priority Review or asks for more data. This delays the approval process.