Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc (KPTI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.06-17.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KPTI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -77.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 93.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 116 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KPTI — legal / regulatory event — Bankruptcy or Receivership
Dated 2026-11-02
Bankruptcy or Receivership. On November 2, 2026 (the “Petition Date”), Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (the “Company”) and its subsidiary, KPT Texas LLC (the “Subsidiary” and, together with the Company, the “Debtors”) filed voluntary petitions (the “Bankruptcy Petitions”) under Chapter 11 of title 11 of the United States Code (the “Bankruptcy Code”) in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas, Houston Division (such court, the “Court” and such cases, the “Cases”). Th…
Why it matters: The company said its cash could fund plans only until October 15, if the lender deal stays in force. A new deal could extend that runway.
Worry ifA filing or company update names new funding, a strategic deal, or a lender waiver. This extends cash runway past October 15.
Less concerning ifThe company reports no funding or lender extension. It also says it cannot fund plans beyond October 15.
Why it matters: The Phase 3 trial tests selinexor with two other drugs in treated multiple myeloma. Its main result may shape the value of that program.
Watch forThe company reports that XPORT-MM-031 met its main endpoint for progression-free survival.
Also watch forThe company reports that XPORT-MM-031 missed its main endpoint for progression-free survival. Or, it delays the readout beyond 2026.
Why it matters: The filing could open a new use for selinexor. FDA acceptance and review terms are the next clear tests.
Supportive ifFDA accepts the sNDA and grants Priority Review. Or, it sets a review timeline that supports an approval decision.
Worry ifFDA refuses to file the sNDA or declines Priority Review. Or, it asks for more data before review can continue.
Why it matters: XPOVIO sales support the company's cash flow. New competitors already weighed on demand in Q1.
Watch forThe company keeps its $115 million to $130 million U.S. sales range and reports Q3 sales that keep it on pace for at least $115 million.
Also watch forThe company cuts its annual U.S. sales range below $115 million, or reports Q3 sales that put the low end out of reach.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$442 on $10,000 · ±4.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,732 loss on $10,000 · 17.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,944 loss on $10,000 · 99.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: These Phase 2 results can add evidence for selinexor in myelofibrosis. Management had planned to report them in the second half of 2026.
Watch forThe company reports 24-week follow-up results from the 60 mg cohort. Spleen responses support the SENTRY findings.
Also watch forThe cohort shows weak spleen responses or safety issues, or the company delays results beyond 2026.