KKR Real Estate Finance Trust, Inc. (KREF)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
$5.71-1.21%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KREF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KREF — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-21
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), unless it is specifically in…
Why it matters: KREF reported $155.9 million of loan write-offs in Q3. More large losses could weaken book value and earnings.
Worry ifA later quarterly report shows loan write-offs above $42.3 million, the Q2 2026 level.
Less concerning ifA later quarterly report shows loan write-offs below $42.3 million and no rise in the loan loss allowance.
Why it matters: The board is weighing a sale, merger, asset sale, or a revised business plan. A clear result would shape KREF's next steps.
Watch forA company filing or release names a completed sale, merger, or asset sale. It may also name a decision to keep its current plan.
Also watch forA company filing says the review ended with no deal and no change to the business plan.
Why it matters: Q3 distributable loss was $2.64 per share, far above the $0.10 quarterly dividend. A cut would show continued pressure on cash payments.
Worry ifThe board sets a quarterly common dividend below $0.10 per share, or suspends it.
Less concerning ifThe board declares a quarterly common dividend of at least $0.10 per share.
Why it matters: KREF reported three watch-list loan resolutions in Q3. More resolutions could reduce troubled loans; a rising risk rating would point the other way.
Watch forA later report names at least three more resolved watch-list loans and shows the average risk rating at or below 3.2.
Also watch forA later report lists fewer than three resolutions. It shows an average risk rating above 3.2.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $360 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,750 loss on $10,000 · 37.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Repayments reached $2.4 billion year to date, while Q3 loan funding was $157 million. This can add cash and reduce debt, but may shrink the loan portfolio.
Watch forThe next quarterly report shows loan repayments above new loan funding. Liquidity is at least $853.5 million.
Also watch forThe next quarterly report shows repayments at or below new loan funding. Or it shows liquidity below $853.5 million.