KKR Real Estate Finance Trust, Inc. (KREF)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.65+1.19%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KREF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
KREF — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-21
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), unless it is specifically in…
Why it matters: Improving net income is key for KREF's growth. A positive trend signals better financial health.
Supportive ifQ2 net income rises above $13.8M, showing recovery from last year's decline.
Worry ifQ2 net income is below $13.8M. This shows ongoing financial challenges.
Why it matters: A bigger net loss would worry people about KREF's finances and business issues.
Worry ifQ3 net loss per share reported worse than ($1.95).
Less concerning ifNet loss per share improves to better than ($1.50).
Why it matters: Keeping the $0.25 dividend shows commitment to shareholders. It can help boost investor trust.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the dividend remains at $0.25 per share in the next earnings report.
Worry ifManagement cuts the dividend to below $0.25 per share. This shows financial issues.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow is critical for KREF's financial health. A rise would show progress.
Supportive ifCash from operations goes up above $13.1M in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations drops below $13.1M.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $290 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,455 loss on $10,000 · 34.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If real estate revenue growth speeds up, it could help KREF's performance. This would show a stronger market.
Supportive ifReal estate revenue growth speeds up above 5% each year.
Worry ifReal estate revenue growth continues to slow or stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A strong cash position helps KREF face market challenges.
Supportive ifThe cash position will be over $700 million next quarter.
Worry ifThe cash position drops below $600 million.
Why it matters: More loan loss reserves may mean worse asset quality. This can hurt future earnings.
Worry ifLoan loss allowance increases more than $50 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifLoan loss allowance decreases or remains stable.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend payments may show how management views cash flow and spending.
Watch forDividend payment increases from $0.10 per share.
Also watch forDividend payment decreases or remains at $0.10 per share.
Why it matters: Updates may change strategy. This could affect shareholder value.
Watch forThe committee announces a strategic transaction or plan.
Also watch forNo updates or delays in the review process.
Why it matters: This report will show if KREF's financial performance is improving or worsening. Investors will look closely at the results.
Watch forThe earnings report shows net income going up each year. This means better performance.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows net income going down each year. This means worse performance.
Why it matters: A second earnings miss would raise worries about KREF's financial health and growth.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows a miss similar to the April preannouncement.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings report beats expectations. This shows a turnaround in performance.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable and uses its money well.
Supportive ifKREF declares a dividend of $0.10 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifDividend is cut below $0.10 per share.
Why it matters: Share repurchases mean management thinks the company is valuable. It shows they can manage money well.
Supportive ifKREF plans more share repurchases after July 2026.
Worry ifNo more share repurchases will happen after July 2026.
Why it matters: Higher repayments show that KREF is generating liquidity and improving its portfolio. This is key for its action plan.
Supportive ifLoan repayments reported above $2 billion for the year.
Worry ifLoan repayments fall below $1.5 billion for the year.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows strong cash flow and good capital management. It gives investors confidence.
Supportive ifThe dividend stays at $0.10 per share or goes up in future announcements.
Worry ifDividend is cut below $0.10 per share in future announcements.
Why it matters: Continued share repurchases can signal management's confidence in the stock's value. It can also improve earnings per share.
Supportive ifMore share buybacks are announced beyond the $75 million program.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase announcements or a halt in the current program.
Why it matters: The strategic review could lead to significant changes in KREF's operations or structure. This may impact shareholder value.
Watch forA strategic deal or change in the business plan is announced.
Also watch forThere are no big changes or updates from the strategic review.