Keros Therapeutics, Inc. (KROS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.32+1.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KROS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -54.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -48.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KROS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 3, 2026, Keros Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,…
Why it matters: Positive results from the Phase 3 trial could lead to significant revenue from elritercept. This is crucial for Keros' growth strategy.
Supportive ifManagement shares good news about the Phase 3 trial of elritercept.
Worry ifBad results or delays in reporting trial results.
Why it matters: If the health care sector shows renewed growth, it could boost Keros' prospects. This would indicate a favorable market environment.
Supportive ifHealth care sector revenue growth accelerates back toward 15% year over year.
Worry ifHealth care sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Initial data will show if rinvatercept is effective for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. This is key for Keros' future.
Supportive ifInitial data from the Phase 2 trial is reported in the first half of 2027.
Worry ifNo data is reported by the end of the first half of 2027.
Why it matters: If cash runs low, it may impact Keros' ability to fund operations into mid-2028.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents drop below $250 million.
Less concerning ifCash and cash equivalents remain above $250 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$193 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $469 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,462 loss on $10,000 · 54.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Progress in this trial could enhance Keros' pipeline and future revenue potential. This is a key area of focus for the company.
Watch forManagement says the Phase 2 trial of KER-065 is moving forward.
Also watch forNo updates on KER-065 trial progress by the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Missing earnings could worry investors. This may raise concerns about money and funding.
Worry ifNext earnings report shows a larger loss than the last quarter's earnings miss.
Less concerning ifNext earnings report shows a smaller loss or a profit.
Why it matters: Dosing the first patient confirms progress in the Phase 3 trial for elritercept. This is key for Keros' pipeline and future revenue.
Supportive ifConfirmation of the first patient dosing in the ELRiSE MDS clinical trial.
Worry ifNo announcement of patient dosing by the next earnings call on August 5, 2026.
Why it matters: Spending more money could worry people about Keros' finances. It may affect funding into 2028.
Worry ifQ2 cash burn reported below $16 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 cash burn reported above $16 million.
Why it matters: Moving elritercept forward would increase its market potential. It would also support Keros' deal with Takeda.
Supportive ifTakeda announces the start of Phase 3 trials for elritercept.
Worry ifTakeda delays or cancels the Phase 3 trial plans for elritercept.
Why it matters: Funding plans are crucial for sustaining operations. It affects investor confidence and future growth.
Supportive ifWatch for updates on funding or new financing from management.
Worry ifWatch for no updates or bad news about funding being enough.
Why it matters: Updates on cash runway will show if Keros can fund operations until mid-2028.
Watch forManagement says cash will fund operations until mid-2028.
Also watch forManagement says cash will not fund operations until mid-2028.