Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Keros Therapeutics, Inc. (KROS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.45-12.74%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KROS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash and cash equivalents sufficient to fund operating expenses and capital needs into mid-2028 | Management aims to fund operations through mid-2028, ensuring runway for development. | Intact | Cash runway falls short of mid-2028 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a loss-making, clinical-stage biotechnology business with a speculative growth profile, not an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is in watch mode: trial programs are advancing, but recent financial performance is weak and near-term risk is elevated.
The evidence describes KROS as cheap versus peers, with no major fragility warning and a justified priced-in tag. The expectations gap is essentially neutral, but valuation-model confidence is medium, so the peer discount does not by itself resolve the uncertainty around clinical progress or operating results.
Near term, recent earnings misses and a reported run of misses raise the risk of another weak quarter; a guidance cut would add pressure to the operating outlook. Over the multi-year view, cash is expected to fund operating expenses and capital needs into the first half of 2028, while rinvatercept advances in Phase 2 and elritercept advances in Phase 3 with Takeda. The cash balance has declined, and execution is mixed rather than fully proven.
The thesis depends on KROS sustaining its cash runway and delivering on clinical timelines, including initial rinvatercept data expected in the first half of 2027. A guidance cut or continued weak results would worsen the near-term setup, while favorable Healthcare-sector results could support sector momentum. The evidence does not provide detailed trial outcomes or a clear earnings recovery path.
For the next 1 to 3 years, KROS remains a high-risk clinical-development story with real program progress, but weak recent performance and earnings uncertainty limit confidence in the long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Based on current operating assumptions, Keros expects that its cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2026 will enable Keros to fund its operating expenses and capital expenditure requirements into the first half of 2028.” “Keros’ cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2026 was $257.6 million compared to $287.4 million as of December 31, 2025.”
Reduction in net losses and progress toward profitability | A supporting condition in Keros Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows by at least 10% YoY. | Broken | EPS loss worsens or remains flat through FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue stabilizes or improves from current decline trajectory | A primary condition in Keros Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue decline less than -10% YoY. | Broken | Revenue decline exceeds -10% YoY in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-5.41 → $-6.24 · observed estimates
$0.01B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-5.41 | $14,468,844 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-5.59 | $18,910,240 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-5.59 | $18,910,240 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-5.41 | $14,468,844 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-5.41 | $14,468,844 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-5.59 | $18,910,240 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-5.59 | $18,910,240 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-5.59 | $18,910,240 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-5.41 | $14,468,844 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-5.59 | $18,910,240 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-5.41 | $14,468,844 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-5.59 | $18,910,240 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-5.63 | $18,910,240 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-5.49 | $14,468,844 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-6.09 | $12,635,239 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-6.38 | $16,348,480 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-6.09 | $12,635,239 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-6.09 | $12,635,239 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-6.09 | $12,635,239 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-6.09 | $12,635,239 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-6.09 | $12,635,239 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-6.09 | $12,635,239 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-6.09 | $12,635,239 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-6.09 | $12,635,239 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-6.09 | $12,635,239 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-6.09 | $12,635,239 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-6.28 | $12,635,239 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-6.28 | $12,635,239 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-6.28 | $12,635,239 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-6.24 | $13,725,987 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.