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KTB
Kontoor BrandsNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel ManufacturingSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$79.01-1.74%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate, while KTB's capital stance is capital-friendly. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include the potential for guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like RL, LEVI, and VFC. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Apparel Manufacturing
- Market cap
- $4.44B
- Employees
- 10,600
- IPO date
- 2019-06-20
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $79.01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$85.81consensus
Range $64.68 – $99.44
vs price: -8% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$118.44consensus
Range $96.70 – $134.71
vs price: -33% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $79 KTB trades at 15× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $86 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
14.5x
peer 15.8x · own history 12.9x
Premium
0.9x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
-8%
our forecast 31%
Our fair value
$85.81
range $63.58 – $99.44
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 8% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 31%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
91st pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.53x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
45th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish9 analysts, 70% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.10 → $1.08 (-1.7% / 30d). 2 raised, 6 cut, 9 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 70% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme e-commerce.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$186.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$418.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,290.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 7d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth to meet or exceed 9%
Why it matters: This growth target is important for Kontoor's performance and investor trust.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported at or above 9% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 9% year over year.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KTB yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for consumer revenue growth dropping below median
- Watch for changes in unemployment claims on June 4
- Watch for retail sales data on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like RL, LEVI, and VFC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting KTB and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for KTB and other Consumer Discretionary names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If KTB reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-07), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like RL, LEVI, and VFC start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping KTB and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits KTB and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On May 6, 2026, the Board of Directors of Kontoor Brands, Inc. authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $750 million of the Company’s common stock. The new repurchase authorization replaces the existing share repurchase program announced on December 11, 2023. The timing and amount of repurchases will be determined by the Company based on its evaluation of market conditions, continued compliance with its debt covenants and other factors. The program does not have an exp…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.