Key Tronic Corp (KTCC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.41+1.69%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KTCC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -85.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -13.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 71.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KTCC — officer change
Dated 2026-08-26
The filing discloses the establishment of performance goals and the granting of equity awards under an incentive compensation plan, which is a routine administrative matter rather than a change in management.
Why it matters: Securing new programs shows demand strength and supports revenue growth. This is crucial for recovery.
Supportive ifNew program awards are over $60 million in total.
Worry ifNew program awards are under $30 million. This shows weak demand.
Why it matters: Finishing this process is key to cutting costs and boosting profits. It is a major management priority.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the wind-down is completed by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe wind-down is delayed or not completed by the expected timeline.
Why it matters: New program wins are important for growing revenue. They show the company is doing well in the market.
Supportive ifThe company will share news about new program wins. These will be in the automotive and industrial sectors. This announcement will happen in Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo new program wins announced in Q4 2026, suggesting a stagnant sales pipeline.
Why it matters: Progress in Juarez is key to cutting costs and improving operations. Investors want to see clear results.
Supportive ifManagement says they finished restructuring. They saved over 10% in costs.
Worry ifThere are no updates or delays in restructuring plans. The timeline stays the same.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it could signal a slowdown in the Information Technology sector. This may impact Key Tronic's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above its median.
Why it matters: Revenue growth signals recovery from past declines and success in new programs. It is crucial for restoring investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 revenue shows an increase compared to Q3 2026, indicating a rebound.
Worry ifQ4 2026 revenue continues to decline or remains flat compared to Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth from new programs is key for recovery after recent declines.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue increases year over year, driven by new program launches.
Worry ifQ4 revenue keeps falling compared to last year. This shows ongoing demand problems.
Why it matters: Changing operations in China may affect costs and supply chain. This is important to management.
Supportive ifManagement says they made changes that improve margins by 5%.
Worry ifNo updates or bad news about changes in China operations.
Why it matters: Better margins show the company is managing costs well. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifGross margin in Q4 2026 goes above 8.0%. This shows good cost-cutting efforts.
Worry ifGross margin in Q4 2026 stays at or below 8.0%. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Finishing the exit from China is key for cost savings and operational efficiency. This will help improve margins and support growth.
Supportive ifChina operations are done. This will save $4 million each year.
Worry ifThe wind-down is delayed or not completed by the end of fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Securing new program awards shows demand strength and can drive future revenue growth.
Supportive ifNew program awards are over $60 million. This includes data centers and industrial power.
Worry ifNew program awards are under $30 million. This shows weak demand.
Why it matters: Better gross margins mean better cost control. This can help make more money.
Supportive ifGross margin is over 8.5% in the next quarters. This shows good cost control.
Worry ifGross margin is below 7.5%. This shows ongoing problems in operations.
Why it matters: Cash flow problems can hurt Key Tronic's ability to fill orders and grow.
Worry ifReports say many EMS companies have cash flow problems. Key Tronic is one of them.
Less concerning ifThere are signs of better cash flow in the EMS sector. This is a good sign.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$205 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $462 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,437 loss on $10,000 · 44.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.