Reading KTOS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KTOS free→Reading KTOS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KTOS free→NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 114% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If KTOS cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $57.75. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $58 KTOS trades at 8× p/s — 2.3× the 4× p/s peer median, and above its own 4× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $25 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $79–$130. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 132% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 22%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.37x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.18 → $0.14 (-22.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 9 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 79% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$342.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$717.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,015.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows the company is managing costs effectively. This is key for long-term health.
Confirms:Operating income goes up by more than 10% from Q1.
Disproves:Operating income goes down or goes up by less than 10% from Q1.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KTOS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding the Company’s financial results for the first quarter 2026. The full text of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$79.00 – $130.00 (median $100.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-05-10
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | expensive | high |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic acquisitions and organic growth.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on improving cash flow from operations through better working capital management.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth shows that management is working to increase sales. It may also mean the sector is recovering.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year, indicating a positive trend.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains below 6% year over year, showing continued weakness.
Why it matters: Stronger cash flow means better financial health. It helps support growth plans.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations increases by over 15% compared to Q1.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations decreases or grows less than 15% compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Changes in the sector's growth can impact Kratos' performance. A recovering sector may boost sales.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth speeds up above 8% compared to last year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth slows below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Stable or better operating income shows better cost management. This is key for making money long-term.
Confirms:Operating income increases to at least $5M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income drops below $4M in Q2.