Kenvue (KVUE)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$18.74-1.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · KVUE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 30.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
KVUE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and, as a result, such information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific ref…
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost management. This leads to better efficiency and more profit.
Supportive ifGross profit margin improves beyond 59% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifGross profit margin declines or stays below 58.9% in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: This plan aims to make Kenvue run better. Success could improve margins and profits.
Watch forThe initiative leads to a gross profit margin improvement of at least 1% by Q4 2026.
Also watch forGross profit margin declines further or remains flat.
Why it matters: A new CFO may change financial strategies and impact performance. This could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifThe new CFO improves financial performance. There is better cost management.
Less concerning ifFinancial performance gets worse. This shows problems during the transition.
Why it matters: The CFO change may affect financial plans. Stability is important during this time.
Worry ifThe new CFO puts strategies in place. This happens without major issues in finances.
Less concerning ifFinancial performance may get worse. This could happen if guidance is missed during the change.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $249 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,570 loss on $10,000 · 25.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong earnings would support Kenvue's growth story. This would also boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per share exceed $0.30.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share fall below $0.25.
Why it matters: Higher net sales growth shows a good trend. It shows effective market strategies.
Supportive ifNet sales growth exceeds 5% in the Q2 earnings report.
Worry ifNet sales growth remains below 3% in the Q2 earnings report.
Why it matters: This product could improve Kenvue's market position in pain relief. It may attract new customers.
Supportive ifTylenol with Naproxen shows strong sales performance in the first quarter after launch.
Worry ifSales for Tylenol with Naproxen are weak. They are below expectations after launch.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show Kenvue's financial health after a recent miss.
Worry ifEarnings report shows net sales growth above 3.0% and organic sales growth above 1.6%.
Less concerning ifEarnings report shows net sales growth below 3.0% or organic sales growth below 1.6%.
Why it matters: The merger is a key part of Kenvue's growth strategy. It could greatly increase revenues and market presence.
Supportive ifThe merger will close in Q4 2026 as planned. All regulatory approvals are in place.
Worry ifThe merger may be delayed or fail. This could happen due to regulatory issues or shareholder objections.
Why it matters: Kenvue's sales are growing steadily. This shows its core business is getting stronger.
Supportive ifOrganic sales growth exceeds 1.6% in the next quarter.
Worry ifIf organic sales growth drops below 1.6% again, it shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Higher costs may show problems in managing operations. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifRestructuring costs are reported above $250 million for the fiscal year.
Less concerning ifRestructuring costs stay at or below $250 million. This shows good management.
Why it matters: Another earnings miss may show deeper problems. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 earnings report shows diluted EPS below $0.24.
Less concerning ifThe Q3 earnings report shows diluted EPS over $0.24. This means recovery is happening.