Reading KW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KW free→Reading KW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KW free→NYSEReal EstateReal Estate ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, and management's track record is volatile. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.93. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $11 KW trades at 16× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $13 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 13% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.32x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.14 → $-0.14 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$18.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$198.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,729.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This debt issuance helps fund operations and manage money. Success shows the company is stable.
Confirms:A press release confirming the successful completion of the $1.8 billion debt issuance.
Disproves:An announcement of delays or issues with the debt issuance process.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 29, 2026, Kennedy-Wilson, Inc. (the “ Issuer ”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of global real estate investment company Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. (the “ Company ”), completed the issuance and sale of $1.8 billion in aggregate principal amount of senior notes, consisting of $1.1 billion aggregate principal amount of 7.000% senior notes due 2031 (the “ 2031 Notes ”) and $700 million aggregate principal amount of 7.250% senior notes due 2033 (th…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Real Estate Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KW Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CBRE CBRE Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CSGP CoStar Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
JLL Jones Lang LaSalle | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | moderate |
COMP Compass, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Kennedy-Wilson has issued $1.8 billion in senior notes to manage existing debt and fund corporate purposes.
Kennedy-Wilson continues to maintain its dividend per share at $0.12.
Kennedy-Wilson aims to improve its operating income through strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Better operating income means better cost management. This helps the company make more money.
Confirms:Operating income shows a gain greater than $13 million in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income remains below $13 million or shows a loss.
Why it matters: This debt issuance is a key move for financing. Its effects on cash flow and financial health will be important.
Confirms one read:Look for positive cash flow and better financial numbers in the next earnings report.
Confirms the other:Cash flow remains negative or financial metrics worsen after the debt issuance.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend signals confidence in cash flow and financial health. Cuts could worry investors.
Confirms:An announcement confirms the dividend stays at $0.12 per share.
Disproves:A cut to the dividend payout below $0.12 per share.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information contained in
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On May 6, 2026, Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. ("Kennedy Wilson"), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 and posted supplemental financial information on Kennedy Wilson's website (http://www.kennedywilson.com). A copy of the press release and supplemental financial information is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this report (including Exhibits 99.1) is being furnishe…
Other Events. Fundamental Change Offer On May 15, 2026, Kennedy-Wilson, Inc. (the “ Issuer ”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of global real estate investment company Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. (the “ Company ”), announced that it has commenced an offer to purchase for cash (the “ Offer ”) any and all of its outstanding 5.000% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “ Notes ”), upon the terms and subject to the conditions set forth in the Offer to Purchase, dated May 15, 2026, as it may be amended or supple…
Other Events. On May 14, 2026, Kennedy-Wilson, Inc. (the “ Issuer ”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of global real estate investment company Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. (the “ Company ”), announced the pricing of the previously announced private offering (the “ Offering ”) of $1.8 billion in aggregate principal amount of senior notes, consisting of $1.1 billion of 7.000% senior notes due 2031 (the “ 2031 Notes ”) and $700 million of 7.250% senior notes due 2033 (the “ 2033 Notes ” and, together…