Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. (KYMR)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$128.12-5.97%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for KYMR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cash balance near $1.6 billion with runway to 2029 | A primary condition in Kymera Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.6 billion. | Intact | Cash falls below $1 billion before 2029 | Cash and cash equivalents: $373.374M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.6 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Date unavailable373,374,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-stage biotechnology investment, where the main potential driver is whether drug programs show useful clinical results. The long-term thesis weakened this week, despite recent earnings beats, because recent financial performance has fallen into the bottom half of its industry.
KYMR carries a valuation premium versus peers, while the valuation model has low confidence and points to a wide expectations gap driven by the potential value of its programs. The evidence does not show that weak execution quality is fully reflected in the valuation, so expectations may remain vulnerable to disappointing updates.
Near term, the latest earnings beat and a rise in company momentum are positive signals, but recent financial performance remains weak and earnings quality fragile. Over the multi-year view, research spending is rising as the company advances KT-621 and KT-579, while clinical outcomes are still pending; management continues to state that cash supports operations into 2029.
The multi-year thesis depends on clinical progress translating into meaningful evidence for KT-621 and KT-579, while the company manages spending and preserves its stated cash runway. Near term, a guidance cut or weaker employment data could add pressure, while continued strength among healthcare peers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, KYMR remains a high-risk clinical development story with a stated cash runway into 2029, but its thesis is weaker until clinical results and financial execution provide firmer support. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating losses improve toward negative $84 million next quarter | Operating losses improved from -$97.9M to -$84.15M in the last quarter. | Intact | Operating losses worsen beyond -$100 million next quarter | Operating income: $-147.232M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: <= -$84 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 2026-147,232,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows above $34 million next quarter | A primary condition in Kymera Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $34 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $20 million next quarter | Revenue: $0 FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $34 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 20260 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-4.29 → $-5.13 · observed estimates
$0.04B → $0.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-4.29 | $43,092,224 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-4.29 | $43,092,224 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-4.29 | $43,092,224 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-4.29 | $43,092,224 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-4.29 | $43,092,224 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-4.35 | $41,021,170 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-4.35 | $41,021,170 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-4.36 | $41,094,470 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-4.30 | $43,070,396 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-4.36 | $41,094,470 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-4.36 | $41,094,470 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-4.36 | $41,094,470 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-4.36 | $41,094,470 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-4.30 | $43,070,396 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-4.78 | $41,413,653 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-4.78 | $41,413,653 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-4.78 | $41,413,653 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-4.73 | $51,046,130 | 21 / 18 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-4.96 | $45,200,730 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-4.96 | $45,200,730 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-4.78 | $41,413,653 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-4.78 | $41,413,653 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-4.78 | $41,413,653 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-4.78 | $41,413,653 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-4.78 | $41,413,653 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-4.78 | $41,413,653 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-4.98 | $41,331,119 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-4.98 | $41,331,119 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-4.98 | $41,331,119 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-4.98 | $41,331,119 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-4.98 | $41,331,119 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-4.98 | $41,331,119 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-4.98 | $41,331,119 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-4.98 | $41,331,119 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-4.98 | $41,331,119 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-4.94 | $41,331,119 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-4.94 | $41,331,119 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-4.94 | $41,331,119 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-4.96 | $40,649,301 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-4.96 | $40,649,301 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-4.96 | $40,649,301 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-4.96 | $40,649,301 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-4.96 | $40,649,301 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-4.96 | $40,649,301 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-4.96 | $40,649,301 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-4.97 | $40,204,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-4.97 | $40,204,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-4.97 | $40,204,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-4.97 | $40,204,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-4.97 | $40,204,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-4.97 | $40,204,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-4.97 | $40,204,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-4.99 | $40,204,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-4.99 | $40,204,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-4.99 | $40,204,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-4.99 | $40,204,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-4.99 | $40,204,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-4.99 | $40,204,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-4.99 | $40,204,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-4.99 | $40,204,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-4.99 | $40,205,458 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-4.99 | $40,205,458 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-5.11 | $38,377,938 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-5.11 | $38,377,938 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-5.11 | $38,377,938 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-5.11 | $38,377,938 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-5.11 | $38,377,938 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-5.11 | $38,377,938 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-5.11 | $38,377,938 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-5.11 | $38,377,938 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-5.11 | $38,377,938 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-5.11 | $38,377,938 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-5.11 | $38,377,938 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-5.11 | $38,377,938 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-5.09 | $38,377,938 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-5.09 | $38,377,938 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-5.09 | $38,377,938 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-5.09 | $38,377,938 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-5.10 | $38,883,245 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-5.10 | $38,883,245 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-5.10 | $38,883,245 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-5.10 | $38,883,245 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-5.10 | $38,883,245 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-5.10 | $38,883,245 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-5.10 | $38,883,245 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-5.10 | $38,883,245 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-5.10 | $38,883,245 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-5.10 | $38,883,245 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-5.10 | $38,883,245 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-5.10 | $38,883,245 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-5.10 | $38,883,245 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-5.10 | $38,883,245 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-5.10 | $38,883,245 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-5.10 | $38,883,245 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-5.10 | $38,883,245 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-5.10 | $38,883,245 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-5.05 | $42,548,462 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-5.18 | $42,026,804 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-5.13 | $42,026,804 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-5.13 | $42,026,804 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-5.13 | $42,026,804 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-5.13 | $42,026,804 | 17 / 18 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-5.13 | $42,026,804 | 17 / 18 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.