Reading LAD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LAD free→Reading LAD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LAD free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto & Truck DealershipsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 42% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $313.38. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $313 LAD trades at 9× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $544 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $300–$380. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 42% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.10x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $8.72 → $8.68 (-0.4% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.9% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$124.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$309.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,172.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows good money management.
Confirms:The company pays the announced dividend of $0.57 per share on May 22, 2026.
Disproves:The company delays or cancels the dividend payment.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Increased scale supports revenue growth objective.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 29, 2026 Lithia Motors, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$300.00 – $380.00 (median $351.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LAD Lithia Motors | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
AZO AutoZone | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
PAG Penske Automotive Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | full | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving record full year revenues with a target of $37.63 billion.
Continue to grow EPS with a target of $32.32 for the full year 2025.
Provide regular updates on dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: Consumer spending affects Lithia Motors' sales. A decline could hurt growth.
Confirms:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows consumer spending growth above 3% year over year.
Disproves:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows consumer spending growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Used vehicle revenue growth signals demand and pricing strength in a key segment.
Confirms:Q2 used vehicle revenue increases year over year by more than 4.6%.
Disproves:Q2 used vehicle revenue growth is less than 4.6% or declines.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Lithia Motors can maintain growth in a changing market.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: EPS growth shows the company can stay profitable even with market challenges.
Confirms:Q2 diluted EPS exceeds $4.28, showing growth from Q1.
Disproves:Q2 diluted EPS is below $4.28, which means more decline is likely.
Other Events On April 29, 2026, Lithia Motors, Inc. announced a $0.57 per share cash dividend, to be paid on May 22, 2026 to shareholders of record as of May 8, 2026. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the " Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any re…